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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190911
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
The Gambia and Senegal to just offshore at 13N18W. An ITCZ
extends southwestward from 04N17W to 01S38W, then turns westward
to north of Belem, Brazil at 00N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed near the ITCZ south of 04N
between 19W and 49W. No significant convection is found near the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1018 mb high at
the northeast Gulf to the mid-Texas coast. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present at the northeastern and east-
central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf, including the western
Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the basin from
the western Atlantic will prevail through Sat, with gentle to
moderate winds in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh
in the SW half of the basin. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
in the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least Sat
evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late
Sat night into early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 24N early
next week. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may
follow the front through Sun night. High pressure will again
dominate the basin by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb sub-tropical high near 28N74W is promoting a trade-wind
flow across the entire basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to ENE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted northwest of Colombia, near
the Windward Passage and Cayman Islands, and just south of the
Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are present at the central basin, and Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, broad high pressure located between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong trade winds in
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and S of the Dominican Republic
at night during the next few days. These winds will gradually
diminish this weekend into early next week as a cold front moves
across the western Atlantic and the pressure gradient relaxes. A
locally tight pressure gradient will support pulsing fresh to
locally strong winds near northern Colombia at night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs northeastward from northeast of the Leeward
Islands at 20N60W through a 1013 mb low near 24.5N53.5W to
29N52W. Enhanced by strong divergent flow aloft, scattered
moderate convection is found east of the low and related surface
trough from 20N to 30N between 40W and 52W. Another surface
trough is triggering similar convection farther southwest from 17N
to 20N between 40W and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist just
east of the low from 25N to 28N between 47W and 51W. Moderate to
locally fresh NNE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from 12N
to 24N between the central Africa coast and 35W. Otherwise, light
to gentle with locally moderate northeasterly winds and 3 to 6 ft
seas are found north of 20N between the coast of Africa and the
Bahamas/Florida-Georgia coast, including the Canary Islands. For
the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are occurring. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 4 to 6
ft seas in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remaining area
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low and trough will shift ENE into
the weekend. High pressure will otherwise prevail through Sun,
with mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front may move into
the waters off NE Florida Sun night into Mon, reaching from 31N69W
to the northern Bahamas early Tue. Moderate to fresh winds may
accompany the front, locally strong near 31N, along with building
seas. Winds may freshen over the SE waters next week as the
pressure gradient tightens there, leading to building seas. Mainly
slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky