Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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603 FXUS63 KGID 142028 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 328 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will move east across the forecast area by late this afternoon/this evening. Some storms this evening may be strong to severe, mainly west of Highway 281. Large hail/damaging winds would be the main threats. - Wednesday brings another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, mainly from the tri- cities area and areas east. Large hail and damaging winds will again be the main threats. - After a potentially dry Thursday and Friday, periods of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday evening through Monday evening. - High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, and lows will be in the 40s and 50s, through the forecast period && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The upper pattern shows a zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves over the forecast area sitting between a departing ridge over Iowa/far eastern NE and a trough over the Rockies. Meanwhile, a surface trough approaches the central Plains from the west. This evening... Temperatures across the area are in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s this afternoon. Currently expect thunderstorms to develop across portions of central Nebraska along the frontal boundary. Instability is fairly limited but still enough to support stronger updrafts, and steep low and mid-level lapse rates (~8.5 degrees C/km), DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, and a somewhat inverted-V model sounding all support the presence of strong to severe wind gusts with these storms. Modest 0-3 km helicity and deep layer shear supports marginally severe hail as well. These thunderstorms will push east into western portions of the forecast area this evening. Some of these storms may be severe, with the most likely timeframe for severe weather between around 6PM and 11PM, mainly west of Highway 281 as in the Day 1 Marginal Risk outlook from SPC (but that may be a generous eastward extent of severe weather). Showers/storms will continue to track east across the area, but will have difficulty maintaining the severe threat late tonight/overnight. Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday, mainly scattered showers during the overnight hours. The HRRR and RAP models indicate a return of thunderstorms potentially as early as 9 to 10 AM Wednesday, but think morning activity should remain sub-severe. A return to a chance of severe thunderstorms comes Wednesday afternoon and evening, and the eastern two- thirds of the area has been outlooked by SPC under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. This looks to be a better setup as far as model guidance is concerned with grater instability and higher dewpoint values forecast. While damaging winds will be a threat, large hail may be the bigger threat Wednesday afternoon/evening if storms really get going. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the details of this, and if there is enough activity and cloud cover in the morning, severe weather may not develop at all in the afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-70s. Thursday and Friday... Showers/storms will move out of the forecast area Thursday morning, and dry weather is expected most of Thursday through Saturday morning. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s, warming into the 80s Friday. This weekend through early next week... Saturday will probably be the warmest day of the forecast period with high temperatures expected to be in the mid- to upper 80s, and locations across north central Kansas may approach 90 degrees. Another trough swinging across the northern and central Plains will bring the next decent chance of showers and storms Saturday evening and Sunday, with a series of troughs potentially keeping the area active early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A SFC low moving across NE will bring chances for VCTS this evening and showers look possible from tomorrow morning onward. The winds will be southeasterly for most of the period before becoming more southwesterly tomorrow morning as warm front will lift north of the TAF sites. Debated about a MVFR ceiling tomorrow morning, decided to stick with SCT for now. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Beda