457
FXUS65 KABQ 160921
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
321 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with much cooler
temperatures remain in today`s forecast. A few of the storms in
eastern NM could become strong to severe this afternoon and early
evening. Precipitation chances decrease around sunset, ending all
together by midnight. A drying and warming trend will get underway
Friday, continuing through the weekend. Winds are forecast to
increase into the breezy category Sunday with breezy to locally
windy and hot weather forecast on Monday. Roswell will likely hit
its first 100 degree day Sunday. A dry cold front remains in the
forecast to bring temperatures back down to near seasonal averages
Tuesday and Wedesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and a few storms can be seen on radar slowly
moving north across the forecast area out ahead of an upper-low. The
backdoor front has pushed through the gaps of the central mtn chain,
creating an area of convergence in central NM that will be the focus
of shower development over the next several hours. The other area to
watch overnight is the HPCC burn scar where moderate rainfall rates
are currently ongoing. Radar is only showing 0.25-0.5" within the
last few hours, but this may be an underestimation given that
precipitation gauges, including KLVS, are reporting more than the
radar would suggest. The Flash Flood Watch start time was bumped up
a few hours to account for this ongoing shower activity. The good
news is that convective development to the south of the burn area
appears unlikely through the rest of the overnight so precipitation
rates will be on the lighter side (<0.1"/hr). However, this soaking
rain will make it harder for soil to absorb heavier rainfall rates
associated with storms this afternoon.

Precipitation coverage will increase after sunrise, particularly
across central NM near the center of the upper-low. Moderate to
locally heavy precipitation could produce a quick 0.25" of rain
along the RGV, including Albuquerque and Santa Fe, making for a
slick morning commute. Hi-res guidance is in decent agreement that a
few cells will develop in the moist and unstable atmosphere in the
southeast and east-central plains during the late morning/early
afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km should be enough to
create strong updrafts and bulk shear upwards of 60kts will be more
than enough to organize them. It`s difficult to say exactly where
these potentially severe discrete cells will develop given the
myriad of outflow boundaries sloshing around out there, but the HREF
suggests Roosevelt and Chaves counties are most likely. Meanwhile
outflows associated with showers and storms in central NM will favor
clustering as the afternoon progresses. The ample shear should
promote enough organization for these storms to persist as they move
eastward towards the TX border through the afternoon. 0.25"-0.75" of
rainfall will be commonplace, but localized totals up to 2" are
possible in locations that see repeated rounds of storms. The most
likely time for burn scar flash flooding would be late morning to
early afternoon for both the HPCC and McBride burn areas. Most
storms exit to the east by sunset, with the exception of a few
showers and storms developing off of outflow boundaries in the
eastern plains during the evening and early overnight hours.

Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as heights rise and drier air
infiltrates from the northwest. Highs will range from 10 to as much
as 20 degrees greater than today`s values. A few sprinkles are
possible over the high terrain during the afternoon hours, but
wetting footprints will be very small.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

A broad ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Friday
night, lingering overhead through Saturday. Models remain in good
agreement with this ridge axis translating east of the state Saturday
night. A weak short wave trough in the split flow between the
polar and subtropical jets is then forecast to lift northeastward
through CO Sunday, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditons
areawide Sunday afternoon. Winds ramp up further Monday, with the
strongest winds expected in western NM as surface high pressure
over southern AZ combines with a lee side surface low in far
southeast CO. The associated dry cold front is more definitive
from tonight`s model suite, forecast to move from west to east
through the state Monday evening. Temperatures are forecast to
cool closer to seasonal averages behind the front Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered showers and isolated storms will favor central and
northern areas overnight, gradually dropping cigs down to MVFR
thresholds in many areas by 12Z. A backdoor cold front will spill
into the Rio Grande Valley around 08Z, but strong east winds
should be prevented by outflow boundaries from showers across
western NM. Precipitation coverage expands around 18Z tomorrow
when widespread convection develops near the center of an upper-
level low that will move across the state from west to east.
Storms will favor eastern NM tomorrow afternoon. Small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall will be common here and a few storms
may become severe. Most precipitation will exit to the east by
around 02Z with the exception of a few lingering showers across
the eastern plains. Skies clear from the west tomorrow evening as
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Numerous showers and storms are expected today, with rainfall totals
generally ranging from 0.25" to 0.75" across central and eastern NM.
Locally heavy rainfall could produce burn scar flash flooding, with
the greatest likelihood during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. Clusters of storms across eastern NM will produce small hail,
gusty winds, and heavy rainfall and a few may be capable of
producing large hail and gusty winds in the eastern plains. Drier
air enters from the northwest Friday in the wake of the exiting
upper-low. This will improve ventilation areawide as skies clear. A
few showers may develop over the high terrain during the afternoon
hours, but wetting footprints will be very small. Temperatures rise
late week into the weekend as a ridge builds overhead. Highs will be
5-15 degrees above average Sunday and Monday, which look to be the
warmest days of the week. Breezy southwest to west winds will likely
create widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions
across most of the area Sunday and Monday as well. A Pacific cold
front associated with a weak disturbance knocks down temps a few
degrees Tuesday, but at least elevated fire weather concerns are
expected to stick around through mid-next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  74  43  82  49 /  20  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  66  34  76  37 /  70  30  10   0
Cuba............................  61  38  75  45 /  70  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  70  35  79  40 /  40  10   0   0
El Morro........................  63  38  74  42 /  60  30   5   0
Grants..........................  66  35  78  43 /  70  30   0   0
Quemado.........................  65  40  75  42 /  60  40   5   0
Magdalena.......................  62  46  77  52 /  80  30   5   0
Datil...........................  61  42  74  47 /  80  30  10   0
Reserve.........................  69  36  81  38 /  70  30  10   0
Glenwood........................  74  49  84  51 /  50  30  10   0
Chama...........................  59  34  69  39 /  80  30  10   0
Los Alamos......................  59  45  72  50 /  80  20   5   0
Pecos...........................  57  39  72  47 /  90  30   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  55  38  68  47 /  90  20   5   0
Red River.......................  50  32  63  37 /  90  20  10   0
Angel Fire......................  51  28  66  29 /  90  40  10   0
Taos............................  60  34  74  37 /  80  20   5   0
Mora............................  53  35  71  44 /  90  30   5   0
Espanola........................  66  44  80  46 /  70  20   5   0
Santa Fe........................  57  43  73  49 /  80  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  60  42  77  47 /  80  20   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  50  80  54 /  90  20   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  49  81  53 /  80  20   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  48  83  52 /  80  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  49  82  54 /  80  20   0   0
Belen...........................  68  46  84  50 /  80  20   0   0
Bernalillo......................  66  47  83  53 /  80  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  67  45  83  49 /  80  20   0   0
Corrales........................  66  46  83  53 /  80  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  67  45  84  50 /  80  20   0   0
Placitas........................  61  48  78  52 /  90  20   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  66  48  83  54 /  80  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  71  50  86  56 /  70  30   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  44  73  51 /  90  30   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  45  75  48 /  90  30   0   0
Edgewood........................  59  41  76  44 /  90  20   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  36  77  40 /  90  20   0   0
Clines Corners..................  55  39  72  46 /  80  30   0   0
Mountainair.....................  60  42  75  48 /  80  20   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  61  41  75  49 /  70  20   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  48  79  55 /  80  30  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  60  44  72  51 /  90  30  20   0
Capulin.........................  56  39  72  46 /  70  10   5   0
Raton...........................  59  38  76  43 /  80  10   5   0
Springer........................  59  39  77  42 /  80  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  38  74  46 /  80  30   5   0
Clayton.........................  65  46  78  54 /  50  30   0   0
Roy.............................  59  42  75  47 /  70  50   5   0
Conchas.........................  66  48  81  49 /  80  50   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  47  79  50 /  70  40   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  48  81  52 /  60  50   0   0
Clovis..........................  69  51  80  54 /  80  70   5   0
Portales........................  73  50  82  53 /  80  70   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69  49  81  51 /  70  50   0   0
Roswell.........................  75  56  86  59 /  70  30   5   0
Picacho.........................  68  48  81  55 /  80  20  10   0
Elk.............................  67  46  78  52 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...16