Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 051745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1145 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022

Convection has lingered through the overnight hours, feeding on
ample moisture and a little extra lift provided by the right
entrance region of a small jet aloft. Soundings, including last
night`s Grand Junction sounding, indicate a moistening profile
consistent with the south to southwesterly flow aloft pumping
tropical moisture into the Four Corners region. PWATs this afternoon
will run 150-200% of normal for early July. With ample moisture in
place and both the right entrance region of a jet and a subtle
shortwave moving through the flow, storm coverage this afternoon
will be more widespread compared with yesterday. The Central and
Southern Mountains will be most favored for storm development as
this is where the deepest moisture will reside, but showers and
thunderstorms will be possible anywhere along and south of I-70 and
across the Northern Divide mountains. With all the moisture
available, heavy rain will be a concern this afternoon, and recent
burn scars and other "flashy" areas will be monitored closely. A
Flash Flood Watch for the Grizzly Creek Burn Scar goes into effect
today at 3PM and remains in effect through 9PM.

Precipitation should taper off by midnight, with a generally quiet
and mild night in store for the area. Moisture remains in place over
eastern Utah and western Colorado for Wednesday, with coverage
expected to be much the same as Tuesday. Another Flash Flood Watch
for the Grizzly Creek Burn Scar is likely for this period.
Temperatures will continue to be near normal for today and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022

Wednesday afternoon`s convection will taper after sunset as daytime
heating is lost. A pattern shift also begins late Wednesday night as
the area of high pressure centered over the Gulf states begins to
expand westward. Drier air associated with this area of high
pressure moves in for Thursday, with forecast PWAT values dropping
to 60-80% of normal by Friday morning. Along with this, temperatures
jump to around 5 degrees above normal by Friday, with triple digits
appearing in the forecast for Saturday. Models are in pretty good
agreement that conditions will remain hot and dry at least into
early next week, although there is some indication that moisture may
make a return by mid next week, as ensemble guidance is showing PWAT
values return to 120-140% of normal. So while the next week is
setting up to be a dry spell, the return of monsoonal moisture is
certainly in the cards.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022

An active day is expected across the area with widespread
showers and storms having already formed this morning. This trend
will continue into this afternoon and into the evening hours. All
western Colorado sites will see at least VCTS this afternoon as
increasing moisture brings increasing coverage of showers and
storms. CIGS and VIS may dip below ILS breakpoints with any
showers or storms nearby, and may occasionally see brief MVFR
conditions. Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty outflow winds will be
the main threats with any storms. Conditions will improve after
06Z as most precipitation will come to an end. Convection will
start firing tomorrow after 17Z and looks to be similar to today.


CO...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ008-010-013.



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