Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 152150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
350 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Yet another switch-up in storm motion today as showers drift
across the area from the southwest and out of the west-southwest
from I-70 north. The reason for this is the shift of the center of
the high, now spinning over the Southern Plains. Just a few
lightning strikes detected on radar this afternoon with most
showers dropping light rain and outflow winds to 30 MPH. There has
also been a good bit of cloud cover across much of eastern Utah
and western Colorado this afternoon, resulting in cooler daytime
temperatures. Looking at the 24 hour temperature change across
the area, current temperatures are running 3 to 7 degrees cooler
than this time yesterday. However, we still won`t be ending the
11-day, consistent streak of having a high temperature of 90
degrees or more at the Grand Junction Airport, as we hit 90 even
at 3:19 PM MDT. As has been the trend all week most activity will
diminish with sunset, though a weak ripple in the flow will keep
a slight chance for nocturnal showers overnight.

The dirty ridge will remain in place on Thursday with another
round of isolated to scattered diurnal convection. Once again, a
small embedded wave will allow a few showers to persist along the
Continental Divide Thursday night. Areas of smoke will continue
as well, though areas receiving moisture will have some relief in
the intensity of said smoke.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The center of the ridge will retrograde back to the Four Corners
region on Friday. A shortwave riding along the outer perimeter of
the high will enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the Continental Divide Friday afternoon. The ridge will be pushed
to the southwestern CONUS on Saturday as a moderately strong
Pacific trough drops into the Rocky Mountains. The passage of both
shortwaves on Friday and Saturday looks to be our best chance for
coverage of showers and storms, as well as the best opportunity
for wetting rains as PWATs climb into the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range.

The aforementioned Saturday shortwave quickly moves out of the
area by midnight Sunday with drier northwesterly flow setting up
in its wake. In response, drier and warmer conditions will return
for the beginning of the work week. A broad upper level trough
will push into the northwestern CONUS Monday and Tuesday,
repositioning the center of the high over the Four Corners as a
result. Tuesday onwards, extended models show subtropical moisture
trickling underneath the ridge from the south. Still plenty of
time for the models to change course over the next few runs but,
if this current projection materializes, it looks like we could be
in for another week of scattered daytime storms acting on
recycled moisture.

Finally, the staff at NWS Grand Junction would like to wish happy
trails to one of our forecasters, Julie Malingowski, who ends her
5-year stay with us. Best of luck in the rest of your career,


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Cloudy skies with ceilings well above MVFR thresholds will
continue through the reminder of the afternoon over the central
and southern portions of Utah and Colorado. A few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain with
an isolated shower possible near TEX, GUC and ASE. Expect some
clearing skies overnight with winds following typical downvalley
flow patterns.




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