711
FXUS63 KIND 030152
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
952 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend back to the low 90s.

- Heat indices approaching 100 degrees this weekend.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Sunday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

No significant changes needed to the forecast with this update. Made
some minor edits to blend in latest observations. Namely,
temperatures dropping a bit faster than the previous forecast
showed. Despite some mid-level cloud cover, radiational cooling has
been quite efficient given relatively low boundary layer moisture.

Going forward, continue to expect occasional mid-level to high-level
clouds which should slowly dissipate through the night. Winds should
become light and variable or even calm. Some patchy fog is possible,
especially in areas that saw abundant rainfall recently. However,
given the aforementioned dryness in the boundary layer we do not
expect this to be widespread and it will not be mentioned in the
forecast for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An MCV over the western corn belt will continue to move SE towards
Central Indiana through tonight.  Despite the presence of residual
instability and a moderate cumulus field across the area, strong
capping inversion centered near 700mb seen on the 12Z ILX sounding
will prevent any form of convective initiation the remainder of the
afternoon. There however is a zone of weak mid level instability and
sufficient lift associated with the MCV for some sprinkles to
develop across central Indiana overnight as the MCV transits the
area. For the time being have opted to keep pops around 10 percent,
low enough for no mention in the zones. Temperatures tonight look to
be near seasonal norms in the mid-upper 60s.

For tomorrow, greater instability and increasing WAA/moisture
convergence ahead of building upper level ridge may support isolated
to widely scattered TS under otherwise partly cloudy skies. Model
guidance is in disagreement with the best placement and coverage, so
for now just going with broad brush 20 pops. Highs look to range
from the mid 80s to near 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

More typical summertime weather is expected from Friday through
Wednesday.

Friday through Sunday Morning....

Models suggest strong ridging aloft over the Plains states to slowly
pass to the the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday Night. This familiar
pattern will keep central Indiana protected from forcing dynamics as
they are steered well to the north. Meanwhile strong surface high
pressure is expected to set up across the east coast. This will
allow for a return of hot and humid air to Indiana and the Ohio
Valley through the weekend, returning daily high temperatures into
the 90s with uncomfortable heat index values.

Diurnal heating through the day may lead to the development of an
isolated shower or storm, but confidence for this during these
afternoons is low. Forecast soundings show thin CAPE values on
Friday and Saturday. Thus expect the NBM may include some slight
chance pops on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but most spots should
remain dry.

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...

Better chances will be in place on Sunday, but again, coverage
should be just a bit better due to the greater instability.
Significantly better CAPE on Sunday afternoon, near 2000 J/KG.
Furthermore, the models have been trending toward a short wave and an
associated cold front passing across Indiana as the ridge and high
pressure departs. This forcing along with the hot and humid air mass
across the area results in high confidence for showers and storms on
Sunday and Sunday night. Here, expect the best chances for rain over
the next 7 days with this system.

The frontal boundary will be lingering over Indiana on Monday. This
will result in continued chances for showers and storms,
particularly across southern and eastern parts of Central Indiana.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Weak ridging across the area is expected to return to Indiana and
the Great Lakes by Tuesday.  Surface high pressure in place across
the east coast will once again allow for a southerly flow of warm
and humid air to reside over Central Indiana. This will result in
highs at or above seasonal normals in the upper 80s to around 90,
and lows around 70. Given the high dew points and heating but no
organized forcing, a diurnal shower or storm may be possible, but
confidence is low and most locations will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Impacts:

- Very isolated showers or storms possible Thursday afternoon.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus
around 5000ft agl should dissipate this evening and redevelop later
Thursday morning. Some mid-level clouds around 8000ft agl could be
present through the night tonight, along with some high cirrus.

There is a very low chance (20 percent or less) of a shower or
thunderstorm on Thursday, mainly from LAF to IND. The likelihood of
this occurring is low enough to preclude mention in the TAFs.

Winds should die down overnight and become light and variable, with
perhaps a general southwesterly component. Winds pick up a bit after
sunrise and switch to northwesterly.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Eckhoff