443
FXUS62 KJAX 111143
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
743 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Cold frontal passage from North to South early this morning with
drier airmass pushing into the region on a Northwest steering
flow. Skies becoming Mostly Sunny and while the airmass will be
drier, still expect temps to remain close to normal levels with
highs in the lower 80s across SE GA and mid/upper 80s along the
I-10 corridor and near 90 across inland NE FL south of the I-10
corridor. These temps will be warm enough to kick off an East
Coast sea breeze front to push inland to the I-95 corridor and
keep the Atlantic beaches slightly cooler. Weak high pressure over
the region tonight along with mostly clear skies and light winds
will allow for the coolest night of the month of May so far with
lows in the middle 50s over inland SE GA and upper 50s over inland
NE FL and lower to middle 60s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Sunday will remain dry as high pressure at low levels will be
almost directly overhead. There will be a fair amount of mid and
high cloud cover, however with the west to northwesterly flow
aloft. The weak surface pressure gradient should allow the sea
breeze to make progress inland and west of I-95 during the
afternoon. High temps will peak near normal, in the 80s to near 90
area wide before falling only into the 60s to near 70 overnight.

High pressure moves well offshore through the day on Monday in
response to a complex frontal system taking shape over the
southern plains, as an upper trough/low starts to progress from
west to east across the central US. A developing warm front
essentially lifts northward in response to this system, and high
pressure moving offshore Monday, likely stalling out north of our
area. This stalled boundary, combined with several shortwave
impulses around the base of the aforementioned upper trough, will
begin an active pattern across the region. Some uncertainty
currently exists with respect to extent of shower and t`storm
chances Monday as the warm front lifts north, as guidance is split
on the behavior of shortwave energy well ahead of the main trough.
However, certainly will convective chances for all, likely highest
over southeast GA. Temperatures Monday will be similar to those on
Sunday, generally in the 80s to near or slightly above 90 furthest
south and west, in addition to a mild morning on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The aforementioned upper trough makes further progress eastward on
Tuesday and into Wednesday, with more impressive dynamics aloft
interacting with the stalled boundary. Expecting this period to
have the highest chances for showers and t`storms, with a strong
to severe threat not out of the question considering this setup.
Looks like there will be some rather short lived subsidence around
Wednesday Night and through Thursday on the upstream side of the
departing system, with a ridge passing overhead aloft. However,
the next frontal system looks to take shape by the end of the week
with the return of precip chances.

Regarding temperatures: Likely near to below average furthest
north on Tuesday, near or above average further south due to the
proximity of the frontal boundary. Tending towards above average
for Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Mostly clear today. VFR clouds rest of today with mainly a mix of
few- scattered cumulus by midday for coastal TAFs. Some early morning
cumulus possible around SGJ from 12z-14z, but looks prevail VFR.
Sfc winds initially northwest to north near 7-10 kt for SSI, CRG,
and SGJ but will likely come around more to the northeast this
afternoon behind a sea breeze. Rest of the TAFs, northerly sfc
wind and then becomes more northwest near 8-12 kt and breezy by
the aftn. Winds will lighten to about 5 kt or less tonight. Some
MVFR vsby possible at VQQ after 06z tonight but is low confidence
at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds shift to the North at SCEC levels (15-20 knots) early this
morning behind the cold frontal passage and spread across the
local waters. These winds become onshore/NE on Saturday and weaken
to 10-15 knots as the weak high pressure ridge builds over the
waters for the weekend with weak pressure gradient and No
headlines expected with local sea breezes during the afternoon
hours. The old frontal boundary lifts back to the North as a warm
frontal boundary on Monday and stalls across the local waters on
Tuesday as several waves of low pressure track along this feature.
Increasing SE winds on Monday to possible Small Craft Advisory
levels will shift to South and Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the waves moving along the frontal boundary with a more
unsettled pattern of showers and storms at times, with heavy
rainfall and gusty wind threat at times.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected
through the weekend with surf/breakers around 2 feet, before
onshore/SE flow increases on Monday with a potential for solid
Moderate to High Risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  56  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  79  63  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  86  59  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  84  63  84  68 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  89  59  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  91  61  88  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$