196
FXUS64 KTSA 120151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
851 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

High cloudiness will continue to stream overhead tonight across
the region, downstream of an approaching mid level trough. Some
spotty showers and a rumble of thunder or two will also be
possible later tonight across southeast Oklahoma, with no severe
weather expected and rainfall totals expected to stay on the light
side. Overnight lows will stay rather mild, mostly in the lower
60s, thanks to the increasing cloud cover. Previous forecast is
still in good shape, with some minimal updates to PoPs across
southeast Oklahoma tonight based on the current trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be on the increase Sunday and
Sunday night as the upper system to the west begins to move out
into the plains. Instability will remain modest by typical May
standards so severe weather chances will remain low. Shower and
storm chances will continue Monday as a surface low and weak cold
front move across the area, but severe chances will remain limited
at best. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday into
Monday.

Another upper level storm system will affect the area Wednesday
night and Thursday bringing an additional round of showers and a
few thunderstorms. Again, severe weather potential will remain
rather limited, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Temperatures will generally remain near the seasonal averages
through much of the upcoming week, but a notable trend towards
warmer weather will be seen by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR will prevail thru the period, with one possible exception to
be discussed below. Gradually increasing mid and high cloud will
be the rule thru the TAFs, with some chance for a few showers
Sunday afternoon at the E OK TAF sites. Activity will be fighting
drier air in the low levels so elected to use VCSH mention for NE
OK. Chances higher at KMLC so a SHRA prevailing mention was used.
There`s a low chance at the tail end of the forecast Sunday
afternoon for some MVFR cigs to move into KMLC. Kept W AR sites
dry with VFR cigs.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  77  61  78 /  10  60  90  70
FSM   61  80  61  80 /  10  40  80  70
MLC   61  76  61  80 /  20  70  80  60
BVO   56  77  59  77 /  10  60 100  70
FYV   54  78  58  75 /  10  20  90  90
BYV   56  79  58  75 /  10  20  80  90
MKO   60  77  60  77 /  10  60  90  70
MIO   56  78  59  74 /  10  40  90  90
F10   60  75  60  77 /  10  70  90  60
HHW   61  74  61  80 /  20  80  60  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30