Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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684
FXUS61 KAKQ 200755
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into and over the region through Sunday.
Low pressure tracks from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along
the East Coast Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

Latest sfc analysis shows a cold front pushing well offshore
with ~1032 mb high pressure centered over the Upr Midwest. The
high slowly builds east today with dry wx and a sunny sky for
the Mid Atlc. Gusty NW winds still expected through midday near
the coast before CAA weakens. Temps will be about 10 degrees
blo normal...highs ranging from the mid 50s east to low 60s
west.

Clear and cold again tonight with lows ranging fm the mid 30s
to arnd 40. No frost/freeze headlines necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

Mostly sunny on Sat with high pressure building in from the NW,
and N or NE winds 10 kt or less. High temps range fm the upper
50s/near 60 at the coast to the mid 60s inland.

Mostly clear to partly cloudy and not as cold Sat night, with
lows mainly in the lower 40s. Partly sunny on Sun with highs
mainly ranging thru the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Thursday...

The medium range period will begin with a slow moving upper low
tracking east from the lower MS Valley to the TN Valley Sun
night through early Tue. Upper ridging will be in place across
the mid-Atlc through mon night with strong sfc high pressure
centered over the NE CONUS, ridging south to off the Delmarva.
While some mid/high clouds may affect the local area Sun
night/Mon, conditions should remain dry with the possible
exception of the far SW counties where a 20% PoP will be
maintained Mon aftn/Mon evening. Expect below average
temperatures with lows Sun night ranging from the upper 30s to
mid 40s and highs Mon 60-65 F most places.

By Tue, consensus between the 19/12Z models is for the upper low
to slowly weaken to an open wave while moving into the SE
CONUS/southern Appalachians. Sfc low pressure along the Gulf
coast is progged to move NE up through the SE coastal plain
while sfc high pressure retreats well off the NE/mid-Atlc
coasts. Still some model timing and strength differences so
with the uncertainty, kept PoPs around 40% to 50% for the bulk
of the CWA, genly highest Tue and Tue night. Mainly cloudy so
not as cold Mon night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s and
highs Tue mid 60s SE to around 60 NW (potentially could be
cooler than this if it rains all day). Will keep 30-40% chance
showers Wed and 20% thu as the eventual evolution of the sfc low
shows quite a bit of disagreement amongst the models by this
timeframe. Partly/mostly cloudy Wed and thu with highs warming a
bit to 65-70 F and lows mainly 50-55 F.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Mainly VFR through the 06Z TAF Period. Northwest winds will
slowly diminish this morning as high pressure builds back into
the region. Mainly clear skies are anticipated through the TAF
period. NNW winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
anticipated daytime today.

Outlook: VFR conditions will then continue late this aftn
through Sun, as high pressure builds down over the region. A
disturbance approaches the region late Monday bringing the next
chance for sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...

CAA will wane this morning with a NW wind of 15-25kt diminishing
to aob 15kt by this aftn. Gale flags for the Bay/ocean S of
Cape Charles have expired and been replaced with SCA flags. SCAs
for the Rivers continue through 11z and 14z for the remaining
marine zones. Seas/waves of 4-7ft/2-4ft will gradually subside
through the morning. High pressure builds in from the NW this
aftn into tonight. A secondary surge is expected later tonight,
but this surge should generally be sub-SCA. High pressure will
build over the region Saturday and Sunday resulting in benign
marine conditions. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England
coast early next week as low pressure pushes off the Southeast
coast. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is
expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Monday
night/Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas
building to 6-10ft by Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-5ft waves in
the Mouth of the Bay. Broad low pressure crosses the region
Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048-060>062-
     064-067>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
     650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ630>632-
     634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...AJZ



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