Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 271125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
625 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018
Summer-like pattern continues for Central IL this afternoon, as an
upper ridge remains parked over the Central Plains, building NE
into the Midwest. A general lack of pressure gradient at the
surface has left the winds light and somewhat variable through the
weekend...and the region susceptible to the weak forcing of
mesoscale boundaries for isolated shower and thunderstorm
development in the afternoon/early evening.

Forecast of hot and humid air with the leftovers from convective
systems in the region will complicate matters again today. HRRR
actually picking up on some scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, and have placed isolated pops in the forecast area
wide. Some of the other models are focusing the activity to the
NW, and potentially to the south along the Ohio River Valley, but
rich surface based instability in the afternoon hours across the
center of the state will not need much in the way of an outflow to
produce isolated shower or two. Not enough to warrant more than a
20 pop at this time, however. Hot and muggy will be the main
concern for today and tomorrow as high temps approach local
records. Plenty of moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and mostly sunny skies will result in heat indices in
the low to mid 90s. Keep heat safety considerations in mind while
participating in outdoor activities this holiday weekend, as the
heat does not relent through the holiday. Temperatures in the
overnight tonight only drop into the upper 60s/low 70s again

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018
Upper level ridge as well as surface high pressure park over the
region through Monday, keeping high temps in the 90s, heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s in the afternoon hours. Models
seem to be sparse with any convective development for Monday. So
far, Monday is the break in the chances for precip, should there
be a lack of other forcing mechanisms. Max temps through Tuesday
are into the 90s, and approaching climate records in some
locations. Late in the weekend, a subtropical system (Alberto) is
moving into the Gulf Coast. Model progression/tracking of the
storm is holding some consistency into midweek. Its associated
moisture is moving into the region as it moves up just east of the
Mississippi River and into the Ohio River Valley. System will be
pushing into a ridge, and interacting with drier air in the mid
levels out of the desert SW. Pops increase through the end of the
week, but the coverage and qpf is a lesser confidence forecast as
the erosion of the mid level RH reduces precipitable water in the
column. Forecast will remain warm through the end of the week,
just tempered slightly by cloud cover from the remains of Alberto
as it moves into the Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated TSRA
possible 18-24Z, but coverage/probability too low for mention in
12Z TAFs. Winds light and somewhat variable through the period,
however predominantly southerly winds less than 8 kts expected 15Z
to 01Z Monday.


Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Here are Record Highs Today thru Tuesday in Central IL...

City          Today/May 26  Sun/May 27  Mon/May 28  Tue/May 29

Bloomington...  95/1911     95/1911     97/2012     97/1934
Charleston....  97/1911     97/1911     97/1911     96/1934
Danville......  99/1911     98/1911     97/1911     95/1942
Decatur.......  94/1985     96/1911     94/1991     96/1934
Effingham.....  94/1921     94/1972     94/2012     98/1895
Havana........  93/1967     93/1978     92/2006     95/2006
Jacksonville..  94/1953     92/2012     92/2006     95/1934
Lincoln.......  94/1926     94/1985     94/2006     96/1934
Mattoon.......  92/1972     92/1987     93/1991     92/1987
Minonk........  98/1911     96/1911     96/2012     98/1934
Paris.........  94/1911     96/1911     96/1911     95/1914
Peoria........  95/1911     94/1911     94/2006     99/1934
Robinson......  97/1911     97/1911     97/1911     96/2012
Rushville.....  94/1926     92/1978     92/1941     98/1934
Springfield...  95/1911     94/1911     94/2006     95/1934
Tuscola.......  98/1911     96/1911     97/1911     94/1991
Urbana........  95/1911     95/2012     94/1991     96/1934




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