Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260144
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
944 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic through
next week. Subtropical Storm Alberto will move into the Gulf
States early next week. The remnants of it will move into the
mid-Atlantic states by the end of the week. The circulation
around the system will keep a deep supply of tropical moisture
and unsettled weather across the area through most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 945 pm Fri...Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure
offshore and weakening stationary front just to the south. No
sig changes needed to previous forecast for update. Winds are
expected to become light to calm, allowing for good radiational
cooling which will lead to low stratus and patchy fog to develop
after midnight in high RH boundary layer. Lows will be in the
upper 60s to low 70 across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 325 pm Fri...Continuing moistening and warming conditions
expected. By afternoon, more of a typical summer time pattern
with an iso or sct shower or storm for inland locales and rising
hts near the coast spelling dry conditions in the afternoon.
Have 30-40 pops for wrn/srn areas on Sat. Temps very warm and
humid with highs 85-90 inland and near 80 beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 pm Fri...

Saturday night...Dry but muggy with lows in the 70-75 degree
range.

Sunday...Have trended drier with fcst, as ridging will be in
place courtesy of Bermuda high offshore with above climo hts. It
will be quite warm and humid, with highs in the 85-90 degree
range again inland, to near 80 beaches. Pops will only be 20%
wrn half to 10% eastern zones.

Sunday Night through Monday...Increased confidence this period
with threat for heavy rain and localized flooding, as models
converging on piece of energy associated with the tropical
system in the Gulf moving through E NC. Layer moisture increases
dramatically by Sun eve with advertised Pwats inc to aoa 2
inches, and layer streamlines approaching 15 g/kg, indicative of
tropical air mass across E NC. Forcing for ascent increases as
the area will be under RRQ of upr jet streak to the north. These
ingredients combine to bring up to a few inches of rain
possible for Sunday night into Monday. Have added +RA wording to
grids and will highlight heavy rain threat in HWO. Have inc
pops further to 70-80%.

Monday Night through Thursday...Fcst becomes less certain this
period, as the area will still be under threat for showers and
storms indirectly associated with the tropical system over the
deep south. Will maintain higher chance pops but cap them at
50%, as timing of potential shortwaves interacting with frontal
boundary in the area will dictate when and where precip moves
through the region. Nevertheless, it still looks like an
unsettled period as very warm and humid air mass will still be
in place. Highs this period generally in the mid 80s inland to
near 80 coast. Lows will be 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 630 pm Fri...VFR conditions currently across the area, but
decent chances of widespread sub-VFR developing late tonight and
early Saturday morning. With high boundary layer, and mostly
calm winds radiational cooling will allow for low stratus and
patchy fog to form with IFR conditions possible at all 4
terminals. VFR will return by mid-morning with SSW wind gusts
15-20 kt Sat afternoon. Scattered afternoon convection
expected.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...Mainly VFR through Sunday, though threat for
overnight fg/stratus bringing conditions to MVFR or lower.
Better chance for widespread sub VFR comes into play Sunday
night through Monday as tropical moisture and periods of heavy
rain move into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sat/...
As of 945 pm Fri...Latest obs show S/SW winds 5-15 kt, with
some gusts up to 20 kt north of Ocracoke with seas 2-3 ft.
Southwest flow will be the rule in the short term with high
pressure off the southeast coast. Winds will average 5-15 knots
tonight on the coastal waters and sounds, 5-10 knots on the
rivers. Winds will increase Saturday, courtesy of the offshore
high and increasing land/sea thermal gradient. Speeds will be
10-20 kt on the coastal waters and 5-15 knots on the rivers.
Some gusts will approach 25 kt Sat afternoon and evening on the
Pamlico Sound. Seas will average 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...The SW winds will generally remain 10-20 kt
through Tuesday, with seas building close to SCA range (4-6 ft)
later Mon into Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 325 pm Fri...KMHX radar is down until further notice,
awaiting parts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/HSA/TL
MARINE...CQD/HSA/TL
EQUIPMENT...MHX


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