183
FXUS62 KTAE 151737
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The main concern over the next 24 hours is the tropical disturbance
east of Melbourne this morning moving westward. The 2 am NHC outlook
shows a medium (40%) chance of development as it moves west into the
Gulf. For this afternoon, we expect to see an increase in showers
and thunderstorms ahead of it in our area with a moist and unstable
airmass remaining in place. The greatest coverage of storms is
expected to be across our Florida counties as low level convergence
with the seabreeze occurs. A few stronger storms will be possible
again today with gusty winds, particularly along the Panama City to
Apalachicola corridor.

In terms of heat this afternoon, we currently expect afternoon
convection to hold off long enough to reach 108F heat indices over a
similar area as the past couple of days, generally from Valdosta
westward and southward. The one exception is across the southeast
big bend where it may be just a touch cooler today with heat indices
closer to 105F as opposed to 108F.

For tonight, conditions will remain quite muggy with overnight lows
in the mid 70s for most inland locations and upper 70s to near 80
along the coast. As the tropical disturbance passes just to our
south, we may see convection linger near the coast and offshore
through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical disturbance will have moved into the eastern or
northeastern Gulf by Wednesday morning. Models are in good
agreement with ridging to the north over the southeast US to keep
the disturbance on a general west or west-northwest movement to
the north central Gulf coast Thursday. Models disagree on if the
disturbance will develop, and if so, should remain on the weaker
side. Regardless of development, rain chances will be at its
highest (70% north to 90% south) Wednesday and Thursday as PWATs
will be in excess of 2 inches and closer to 2.2 inches along the
coast. With the higher rain chances and expected cloud cover,
highs through late week will be slightly cooler with readings back
into the lower 90s which will bring heat indices down below heat
advisory criteria. As the disturbance moves by, an uptick in winds
over the Gulf waters will occur as well as a high risk of rip
currents along all area beaches into the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, mid level ridging builds over the Gulf and
southeast US with elevated rain chances into early next week as
tropical moisture lingers and highs returning back to the mid to
upper 90s. Heat advisories may be returning later this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and early
evening with the only exceptions behind scattered to widespread
shower and storm activity from 19z to 00z this evening. With
northeast winds, best chances are likely at ECP/TLH but potential
exists at VLD/DHN and to a lesser extent ABY. Showers and storms
die down later this evening. IFR ceilings are possible tonight
from ABY/TLH and eastward as low cigs move in from the east

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Generally light north to northeast winds today will give way
to increasing south to southeast winds Wednesday and Thursday as a
low pressure area moves off the Florida peninsula this afternoon and
emerges into the northeast Gulf Wednesday and moves west towards the
north central Gulf coast Thursday. Small craft exercise caution
conditions are likely with at least a medium chance for small
craft advisories depending on how the low pressure evolves and
where it tracks. There is a medium chance, a 40% chance, of
tropical development as it moves over the northeastern Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty
and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Rain chances increase markedly today through Thursday as deep
tropical moisture arrives and a tropical disturbance emerges into
the northeast Gulf. The disturbance is forecast to trek west
towards the north central Gulf by Thursday. Even after the
disturbance moves west, tropical moisture hangs around with
increased rain chances into the weekend. Highest rain chances will
be closer to the coast and thus the higher rainfall amounts as
well, though any slower or training of storms could produce
locally higher amounts. The trend in rainfall amounts have slowly
increased and may change depending on any development and overall
movement of the disturbance. Nevertheless, there is increasing
concern for flash flooding over the next few days. WPC has
outlooked much of the area, especially closer to the coast, in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall through late this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  75  88  76 /  60  50  90  30
Panama City   96  76  89  77 /  70  70  90  60
Dothan        97  75  91  75 /  40  30  70  10
Albany        96  75  91  74 /  30  10  60  10
Valdosta      96  74  93  75 /  30  10  70  10
Cross City    94  71  91  73 /  80  80  80  40
Apalachicola  91  77  86  79 /  70  60  90  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>160.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl