318
FXUS63 KLBF 150430
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this
  afternoon/evening some may be strong to severe

- Chance for more scattered to widespread thunderstorms Tuesday

- Cooler below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main concern in the short term will be the chance
for severe weather late this afternoon/evening and Tuesday
afternoon/evening. For today there is an isolated chance of
thunderstorms to move to western Nebraska. As a shortwave trof
continues to move eastward across WY into NE a few isolated
thunderstorms will develop and push into western Nebraska and the
northern Sandhills from WY and SD. There is a slight risk across the
far northwest Sandhills late this afternoon and evening that an
isolated storm could become strong to severe. The main concern will
be strong to damaging winds.

The greater concern for severe weather will be Tuesday as storm
coverage will impact more area with nearly all of western and north
central Nebraska in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to be more scattered to
even potentially widespread by evening hours. A cold front will sag
southward into northern Nebraska by afternoon, ahead of the front
the environment will have southerly winds, with warm temperatures as
highs reach the upper 90s across southern Nebraska. 0 to 6km shear
will be around 25 to 30 kts with MU CAPE around 1500 to 3000 J/kg.
Storm mode will start off as more discrete storms then storms may
form more linear as they move east into the eastern fringes of the
CWA. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail, however a
tornado or two can`t be ruled out. For the 2% Tornado potential,
this will generally be early on when storms are more discrete, as
the afternoon/evening progresses storms will become more
clustered and tornado potential decreases. Storms should be
mostly out of the CWA by midnight as storms continue eastward
into central and eastern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

With the cold front passage temperatures will be much cooler
for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will only be in
the upper 60s across the northern Sandhills, north of the front
and into the 70s across much of the forecast area with low 80s
across far southwest Nebraska for areas south of the front. This
is around 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Cool temperatures
continue into Thursday with highs in the 70s. There will also be
a chance for scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday with a
marginal risk that some storms may be strong to severe in the
afternoon and evening as the cold front continues to advance
southward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through Tuesday afternoon.
Increasing clouds are expected by mid to late afternoon in advance
of the next thunderstorm potential. While location and timing still
has some uncertainty, anticipate thunderstorms to develop by late
afternoon across the Sandhills. Impacts to both terminals should be
expected through mid-evening before storms push to the southeast.
Across northern Nebraska, some lingering showers are possible
through at least 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik