


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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099 FXUS63 KLBF 150813 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures are expected today for most of the forecast area with readings in the 90s. Some middle to upper 80s are expected over northwestern Nebraska. - A good chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across the area as a cold front passes through the area. An enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) exists across a large portion of the forecast area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area Wednesday. - Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s and 70s Wednesday, with readings in the 70s Thursday. Temperatures will trend back toward more seasonal normals Friday into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 H5 analysis tonight had broad westerly flow across the northern third of the CONUS. Within this flow, a decent shortwave trough was located over southern British Columbia with embedded shortwaves noted over North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Further south, a shortwave trough was present across far western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming. Flow across the southern CONUS was disorganized tonight with weak high pressure over the desert southwest and another weak high over the lower Mississippi Valley. The shortwaves over North Dakota and the high plains of eastern Wyoming, had led to showers and thunderstorms earlier tonight. Across western Nebraska, the bulk of this activity has dissipated overnight while activity persisted over the Dakotas. At the surface tonight, a frontal boundary extended from northwestern South Dakota, east into far southeastern North Dakota. A weak surface trough extended from eastern Wyoming, south along the front range of Colorado. Overnight, skies were generally cloudy as a shroud of high level cloudiness from decaying thunderstorms was present across western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 AM CDT, ranged from 66 degrees at Broken Bow to 75 degrees at O`Neill. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The shortwave trough over British Columbia, will move southeast into northwestern Montana today. This feature will force a cold front into northwestern Nebraska by mid afternoon. Temperatures today will range from the middle 80s INVOF the front in the northwest, to upper 90s over southwestern Nebraska. The front will accelerate south late this afternoon into the evening hours as the upstream shortwave trough traverses Montana. South of the front, southerly winds and strong low level warm air advection will push SB capes north of 3500J/KG this afternoon along and east of highway 83. West of this line, SB CAPES will range from 1500 to 2500 J/KG. As the front approaches the Sandhills late this afternoon, and with a weak cap in place, thunderstorms will develop INVOF the front during the 4 PM to 6 PM time frame. Deep layer shear will be somewhat meager initially, but will increase into the evening hours as mid level westerlies increase. Steep lapse rates and abundant DCAPE, will support strong winds, which may be enhanced by increasing mid level winds into the evening hours. Feel at this point, given the steep mid level lapse rates, a large hail threat will be the initial severe mode, with a transition to a linear wind threat mid to late evening as mid level winds increase. The threat for thunderstorms will move east of the area by late evening, however there will be a limited threat for post frontal showers, particularly in the west as decaying convection over Wyoming drifts east. Much cooler readings will settle in across the forecast area on Wednesday behind the front. The latest NBM guidance for North Platte has 25th and 75th percentile highs ranging from 73 to 82. Decided to utilize the 25th percentile highs as it better reflects the MAV and MET guidance which is 72 and 65 respectively. FWIW, the record low maximum temp for North Platte tomorrow is 65. North of the front, northeasterly winds and weak lift may lead to a continued threat for showers Wednesday, albeit the threat for decent amounts of precipitation appears low. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Cool surface high pressure will build south into the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska Thursday. Winds will start the day from the east with a gradual shift to southeast late in the day. H85 temps across the area will range from 11c to 14c Thursday afternoon which will equate to highs in the lower to middle 70s. With the high anchored over eastern Nebraska and with a warm front, well west of the forecast area, the threat for precipitation Thursday and Thursday night will be minimal. A warm front will lift east Friday, moderating temps back into the 80s. The combination of warmer temperatures and persistent low amplitude westerly flow, will lead to an increased threat for thunderstorms Friday night through Monday. Highs will be in the 80s for Saturday and Sunday with readings reaching the 90s on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR conditions will remain in place through Tuesday afternoon. Increasing clouds are expected by mid to late afternoon in advance of the next thunderstorm potential. While location and timing still has some uncertainty, anticipate thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon across the Sandhills. Impacts to both terminals should be expected through mid-evening before storms push to the southeast. Across northern Nebraska, some lingering showers are possible through at least 06Z Wednesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Kulik