Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
Issued by National Weather Service TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
231 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Weak short wave trough currently moving through the region will
shift to the south and east tonight, bringing any light snow to an
end across the southern portion of the area. We may see some
patchy fog tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly over the
western and southern portions of the forecast area. Benign weather
is expected Wednesday as we remain under fairly dry northwest

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Predominantly northwest upper flow looks to persist for most of
the period, with the main weather item(s) of interest over the
weekend into the start of next week as the pattern looks to
transition with heights building across the region. We look to
remain on the southern/western ridge of surface high pressure
centered over Canada through Thursday night. After that we will
start to get into return flow, and see some warm advection and
deeper moisture begin to work into the region, with precipitation
eventually developing from west to east late Friday into Saturday.
The deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) start to deviate
quite a bit in forecast details after Friday, and there is
significant spread in their respective ensembles after that point,
leading to fairly low forecast confidence in the forecast details
after Friday. However, we look to have a decent shot at some light
snow with higher PoPs from late Friday night into Saturday
morning across the western and southern portion of the area, with
the north and northeast looking like they could stay mostly dry
during that time. The main baroclinic zone and surface low remain
well to our south, so any significant precipitation looks to stay
south of us. The next feature of interest will try to work into
the area late Sunday into Monday, although there is substantial
disagreement in the speed, amplitude, and degree of phasing
between northern and southern stream waves, leading to an
extending period of PoPs from late Sunday into Tuesday given the
uncertainty and need to stick with a consensus forecast at this
point. Later forecasts should be able to shorten up the overall
time period precipitation potential and get a better handle on
precipitation type. At this point, mainly tied precipitation type
to expected boundary layer temperatures, leading to a mention of
rain and snow over that time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The main concern this afternoon continues to be the light snow
and MVFR ceilings across Central MN including BRD. Chances for
light snow over Central will continue through the evening as an
inverted trough and upper level disturbance progress eastward.
While Northeastern MN is expected to remain mostly dry, ceiling
heights are anticipated to lower, leading to MVFR conditions
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

Extensive low to mid-level cloud cover is expected to remain in
place through late Wednesday morning before gradually clearing
out during Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds-im over the
area. Otherwise, winds over the Western TAF sites are expected to
remain near 5-10 kts out of the east/east- southeast before
becoming lighter and more southeasterly overnight. Winds for DLH
and eastward are anticipated to remain predominately easterly
through 18Z Wednesday.


DLH  20  33  16  39 /  10   0   0   0
INL  16  38  17  41 /  10   0  10  10
BRD  16  38  22  41 /  20   0   0   0
HYR  14  36  13  41 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  17  32  15  39 /  10   0  10  10




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