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000
FXUS63 KGRB 271708
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1108 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Cyclonic upper flow and low level cold air flowing across Lake
Superior will combine to produce lots of clouds and some lake
effect snow showers and flurries today. The lake effect snow
showers will be largely confined to Vilas county, where an inch or
so of snow is possible.

Low level flow will back to the westnorthwest late tonight and
Friday and result in less lake effect clouds. Scattered light
lake effect snow showers could continue into the evening across
Vilas county, but end elsewhere. Skies should become mostly clear
over all but northcentral Wisconsin by daybreak Friday.

Temperatures will average about ten degrees below normal today
through Friday based on 925mb temperatures of -10C to -15C.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Friday night through Sunday... An upper level ridge will keep high
pressure in place through most of the weekend. Southerly return
flow on the lee side of this ridge will allow temperatures to
climb steadily though the weekend, with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.

Sunday night into Monday...A passing shortwave could take
advantage of the moisture in the region to create some areas of
light snow and rain showers overnight, although guidance varies on
how far south the shortwave will get. Therefore kept pops low.

Rest of the extended...Split flow will once again dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week as an upper
level trough digs into the southern Rockies. Weak WAA is expected
to get south of Wisconsin Tuesday, with overrunning precipitation
possibly into our area. The trough then ejects into the Central
Plains around the midweek, bringing a more organized system across
the Central Plains. This system is expected to mainly pass south
of our area, but overrunning precipitation is possible once again.
With a high amount of uncertainty in the timing and placement
created by the split flow, widespread low pops are in the
forecast, although the week will likely only see two or three
smaller periods with any active weather.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

Northwesterly winds will continue to bring lake effect clouds from
Lake Superior through the evening hours. Cigs will generally be on
the cusp of MVFR and VFR during this period, generally ranging
from 2500 to 5000 ft with the lowest clouds across north-central
Wisconsin. Lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue
across far north-central Wisconsin this afternoon.

Skies should clear across most of the area  late tonight and into
Friday, with the exception of north-central Wisconsin where lake
effect clouds may continue given the continued northwesterly wind
direction.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski