Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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596
FXUS63 KGRR 251707
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
107 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The passage of a cold front this morning will end the threat of
showers and be followed by breezy and cool conditions today. High
pressure will provide a sunny and pleasant day Thursday with
lighter winds before another cold front on Friday brings our next
chance of showers. Cool weather with highs in the 50s will
prevail behind this front over the weekend, but a significant warm
up with highs in the 70s will follow for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A few rain showers will remain possible through daybreak with the
mid level trough and sfc cold front still coming through.
Surprisingly sfc dew pts are around 50 early this morning ahead of
the front, which currently extends from about Mt Pleasant to
Muskegon.

North winds will drive in much drier air behind the front and dew
points will fall into 30s. This will scour out the low clouds
this morning, but a broken diurnal cumulus deck should impact
areas east of Highway 131 this afternoon with thermal troughing
and residual moisture progged at 850 mb.

High confidence for a sunny day with light winds on Thursday as
the sfc high slides through. Highs are expected to reach the
lower 60s, which is about normal for this time of year.

Next cold front/upr trough has little moisture and brings only
light precip amounts/chance pops late Thursday night and Friday.
Main impact of this next front will be to usher in more chilly
weather for a couple days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A strong upper level disturbance moving in from the northwest will
bring scattered light rain showers Friday night. A few wet snow
flakes may mix in overnight north of I-96. After that high pressure
will build in to bring fair and seasonably cool wx this weekend.

Temps will undergo a significant moderating trend early next week as
strong south to sw flow warm air advection develops on the back side
of the departing ridge. High temps of around 70 degrees are
anticipated for Monday and temps will reach well into the 70s by
Tuesday.

Persistent sw flow waa will allow high temps to reach the middle 70s
to near 80 degrees again Wednesday. The continued sw flow will also
result in a gradual increase in moisture and some showers and
thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday night into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High confidence with VFR conditions continuing through the
afternoon as drier air works into the area behind a cold front.
North-northwest winds will gust to around 20 knots this afternoon
before subsiding this evening. Gusts may drop off a little before
00Z as the gradient starts to weaken. High pressure building into
Lower Michigan tonight will promote clear skies and nearly calm
winds. This could provide some light shallow fog tonight between
09-12Z, especially in favored locations. Confidence in formation
is low at this time, and will continue to look at new data and
reassess.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

No changes to the Small Craft Advisory as period of 15-25 kt
northerly flow through this evening leads to rough conditions on
Lk MI. Winds and waves subsiding overnight and followed by more
tranquil conditions on Thursday. Wind and wave could reach
hazardous levels again on Friday behind the next cold front.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

With no significant precipitation expected, river stages will
continue to fall and the 5 current advisories should be able to be
dropped relatively soon.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Meade
SHORT TERM...Meade
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...HLO
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...Meade



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