Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190409

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.UPDATE...Area of mid level clouds over CWA should shift off to
the east overnight. Light winds for a time may allow some patchy
light fog to develop next few hours. However low level winds will
be increasing from the northeast which should put the kibosh on
the fog become more widespread or thicker. May need to raise temps
a couple degrees in spots.


.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Will hold off on introducing any low clouds
due to low level and frictional convergence from Lake Michigan, at
least for today. Coldest low level air arrives Monday night into
Tuesday, but even then, low level rh remains low. Hence confidence
remains higher for VFR conditions continuing for this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 911 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018)

Still watching the possibility for some broken 2kft ceilings
Monday due to surface convergence with the increasing northeast
flow. Winds will be a bit gusty during the day and into the

Northeast winds will increase on Monday and remain elevated
through Tuesday. Gusts will be 20 to 25 knots. The persistent
northeast fetch will allow waves to build to 4 to 6 feet on
Monday and increase to 6 to 9 feet Monday night into Tuesday. A
small craft advisory is in effect starting early Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 635 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018)

No changes to the forecast. Light northeast winds and high clouds
are expected for tonight.

Winds will become light out of the northeast tonight as the
pressure gradient increases. Northeast winds will further increase
on Monday with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. Sct to bkn cloud bases
around 2-3kft are possible Monday morning. Winds will remain
elevated into early Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018)


Monday through Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High
Looks like a cool and dry period. Low pressure will be passing
well to our south and southeast tonight into Tuesday which will
reinforce the cooler regime and tighten up the pressure gradient.
Surface ridging takes hold for Wednesday and Thursday with more
quiet and cool conditions.

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Low to Medium
Models continue to be in decent agreement on bringing the next
weather maker of concern into the area this period. The ECMWF is
considerably slower than the GFS. At this point a mix or a brief
period of rain would be possible at the outset with the
predominant precip type looking more like snow. Potential is still
there for several inches of snow so have maintained a highlight
of this in the HWO.

Saturday night and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
Should have a break between systems, with the ECMWF implying this
would last throughout the day on Sunday. Meanwhile the GFS brings
another system in which could arrive as soon as Sunday afternoon
with potential there for snow or a mix with this one as well.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR mostly skc this period. Northeast winds
will increase tonight into Monday as pressure gradient tightens up
between Canadian high pressure and low pressure moving well to
our south.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory starts later tonight and goes
through Tuesday night. This is due to the ramping up of an onshore
component that is likely to generate high wave action. Low
pressure passing to our south will help to tighten up the pressure
gradient and the subsequent uptick in the northeast winds.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for



Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
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