Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260441
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1141 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for the remainder of tonight
and Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions will prevail tonight through
Sat nt. Very small potential for light fog in low lying areas.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1005 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018)

UPDATE...Swd moving MCS clipped sw Lafayette County although a
trailing area of showers and isold tstorms will affect IA and
Lafayette Counties over the next hour or so. Another n-s
convective line over far se MN and ne IA will likely weaken or
dive more swd with time. The weak shortwave trough over srn MN
into west central WI will track across S WI during the overnight
hours so will maintain slight chance PoPs into the early morning
hours.

Weak AVA and height rises on Sat should inhibit convection
although a very remote chance for showers or tstorms are forecast
over east central WI. This is due to any storms over northern WI
moving sewd into the area. Otherwise swly flow and warm advection
will make for hot temps rising to around 90F with heat index
values slightly higher.

MARINE...Relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected
for the holiday weekend. There is a small potential for fog to
occur at times due to a humid airmass over the cold waters of Lake
MI.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 705 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018)

UPDATE...The core of the strong convection is propagating swd
along the MS River. Thus, lesser chances for showers and tstorms
especially over se WI this evening. A weak shortwave trough
currently over S MN will move across S WI during the overnight
hours. Will keep small chances of showers and tstorms into the
early morning hours for this feature.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Just a chance of showers and tstorms
tonight. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail tonight
and Sat.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 233 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Saturday...Forecast Confidence is medium to high:

A shortwave will move through this evening and early tonight. This
is expected to bring a round of showers and storms to southern
Wisconsin. These storms will be largely instability driven. The
higher instability is currently in the west and will also diminish
during the evening as daytime heating is lost. Thus still
expecting the better chance for storms to be in the western
forecast area mid to late evening, with activity winding down
early in the night.

Not much wind shear with this wave, so may not see much
organization with the storms. Biggest threat will likely be hail,
with some isolated strong wind potential. Areas northwest of
Madison remain in a Slight Risk for severe storms, with a Marginal
Risk elsewhere across southern Wisconsin.

It will be even warmer Saturday, with more sunshine expected than
today along with slightly warm temps aloft. Temperatures will
approach and could exceed record values. Winds will be a bit
lighter tomorrow, which should allow a lake breeze to develop by
afternoon. This will cool it down a bit near Lake Michigan for the
afternoon. Also, might see an isolated storm or two along the
lake breeze given decent lingering moisture and instability.

Saturday night through Memorial Day...Forecast Confidence High...

The exiting weak northern stream shortwave moves across the
Eastern Great Lakes. A general west/northwest flow pattern aloft
along the U.S. canadian border, before a weak upper ridge builds
across Wisconsin Monday.

Overall, flow is weak and very warm and humid conditions will
continue. Forecast soundings show moderate to high CAPE values.
However little if any forcing. As a result model runs are fairly
dry Saturday and Sunday but a brief thunderstorm is not out of
the question.

Surface High pressure brings a little stronger Lake Breeze
on Memorial Day, but inland temperatures will continue to be very
warm. High temperatures are expected to be near record high
values.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

An upstream shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley
later late Tuesday and into Wisconsin later Wednesday, into
Thursday, before lingering over the Great lakes Friday.

Slightly cooler, but still warm, temperatures are expected
starting. Precipitation chances begin to increase later Tuesday,
and continue through Thursday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday.

Could see an isolated shower/storm through late this afternoon,
with a better chance for scattered storms this evening. Chances
currently look highest along and west of a line from Monroe to
Madison to Sheboygan...from mid evening into early tonight as a
shortwave moves through.

It should turn dry overnight into Saturday morning. Not much
forcing for storms on Saturday. Could see a storm or two try to
fire along the lake breeze in the afternoon.

MARINE...

Generally light winds and lower waves are anticipated the next
several days.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Saturday Night through Friday...Hentz



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