Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 172031
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
431 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

The upper Great Lakes will remain on the northern periphery of a
strong 500 mb ridge through tonight as shortwaves continue to top
the ridge and set up the ring of fire convection scenario across the
area. This will continue to bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms to the area and there could be some severe weather as
well with large hail and damaging wind the primary threat. There
will also be heavy rainfall with the thunderstorms and will have to
expand the flash flood watch a bit. Put in Houghton County, Keweenaw
county into the flash flood watch as there has been heavy rainfall
there now. Held off further south with a flash flood watch for now
for Dickinson, Iron and Menominee Counties as it looks like the
heaviest rain would be this afternoon through Monday morning, but
would not be surprised if this area would be the next one to be
under a watch. Confidence is low in this forecast for pops as models
are not really handling the convection well which has been the case
for the past several days. Makes temperature forecasting tricky with
leftover convective debris to deal with along with clouds. Still
think we will see some sunshine today and this will push
temperatures up to at least the upper 80s. Looks quite active for
this forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

A much quieter pattern is expected to set up across the Upper Great
Lakes region through the extended forecast period, with little to no
weather impacts expected.

A cold front will slowly sag to the south of the U.P. early Monday
morning, which will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the
southern or southeast half of the U.P. early in the day. Otherwise,
clouds will be on the steady decrease from the north and northwest.
High pressure will then build across the Upper Great Lakes region
and linger through much of the upcoming work week. High temperatures
will be seasonable to slightly above normal through this time period
with highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s. The next chance of rain will
be toward the end of next week into next weekend as a a low pressure
system approaches from the Plains. Confidence is low for that time
period; therefore, will stick with a consensus of the models, with
little change, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms for
next Saturday and Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

The active pattern across Upper Michigan will continue through
much of the TAF period, with strong to perhaps severe
thunderstorms possible this afternoon into this evening. A frontal
boundary will be traversing through the terminals later tonight,
allowing for winds to become northerly behind it. Despite the
fropa, lingering showers will be possible through much of the
overnight period, in addition to low ceilings and/or visbys. Look
for clearing by midday Monday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018

Convection will continue along and ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary with strong to severe thunderstorms expected into tonight.
Winds will stay at or below 20 knots through the forecast period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MIZ001>003-
     009>012-084.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...TITUS



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