Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 211126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
726 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a weak mid/upper level nrn
stream trough from Manitoba into the Upper MS valley and a
downstream ridge through nw Ontario. At the surface, high pressure
centered near James Bay dominated the region with dry ene low level
flow. However, ssw mid/upper level flow and 300k-310k isentropic
ascent supported an expanding area of mid/high clouds from WI
through the west half of Upper Michigan.

Today, continued dry ne low level flow with temps only to around -
10C at the top of the 2k-3k ft inversion will be unfavorable for
additional lake effect clouds or flurries. A weak shortwave trough
moving in from the northwest will help reinforce the mid/high clouds
over the area and will limit sfc heating. However, diurnal warming
will still push temps to around 30 north and the mid 30s south.

Tonight, expect enough clearing as the mid/high clouds thin out and
spread to the east, for better radiational cooling as light winds
persist. This will allow temps to drop toward the lower end of
guidance with min readings in the low single digits west to the
lower/mid teens along the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

Quiet weather is expected to continue into the weekend under
persistent high pressure. Models indicate that shortwave impulses
lifting e-ne through the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley could
slowly break down the ridge and allow for chances of light pcpn
late Mon into Tue.

Building 5h heights and confluent flow ahead of an advancing mid-
upper ridge from the west will yield more sunshine Thu and Fri as
temps push back toward normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s
north to lower 40s south.

Heading into the weekend, models now in good agreement showing
amplified ridge from Hudson Bay into the Western Great Lakes
suppressing next system well south moving through the Central Plains
and Ohio Valley on Saturday. Expect dry conditions through the
weekend although there will be some increase in cloud cover over the
western quarter of Upper Mi from this Plains system Fri night into
Saturday. E-NE flow circulating around the Hudson Bay high and
presence of some clouds will keep temps slightly blo normal on Sat
with highs generally in the 30s. Look for highs closer to normal by
Sunday under more sunshine and the sfc-850 mb flow shifting to the
SE allowing for some moderation in the airmass.

Models advertise some shortwave impulses moving e-ne through the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley region which could eventually break
down amplified ridge and bring some light pcpn to the area for the
early part of the next work week. GFS solution still appears to be
too aggressive displacing the mid-upper level ridge and bringing a
sfc trough into Upper Mi. Prefer ECMWF solution which shows a
slower, more gradual breakdown of the mid-upper ridge allowing a
weaker inverted sfc trough to move through the fcst area Mon night
into Tue.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 726 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

Expect VFR conditions as dry low level air remains across the

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2018

High pressure will generally remain over northern Ontario through
the remainder of this week. Winds will mostly be under 25kt thru
the period. Ligthest winds should tonight through Thu night,
mostly under 15kt.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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