Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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192
FXUS63 KGID 261717
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Early this morning, a quick moving shortwave is visible on WV
imagery and is just pushing into the Nebraska panhandle. At the
surface, a cold front has also pushed the panhandle and will
continue southeast through the morning, moving through the
forecast area between 8AM and noon today.

Precipitation with this wave/front is looking pretty minimal. In
fact, nearly all guidance has 0.01" or less. RAP soundings show
cloud bases no lower than 10,000 ft, so this seems reasonable. As
such, the current forecast only includes sprinkles across the
forecast area.

The front will also bring gusty north-northwesterly winds,likely
gusting 30-35 MPH at times, before tapering off and becoming
light and variable this evening. This will make today feel colder
than yesterday, despite the fact that air temperatures should be 5-10
degrees warmer than yesterday.

Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to another chilly night
Thursday night, but the warmup starts on Friday as we see a ridge
build over the Rockies. High temperatures on Friday have been nudged
up a bit into the low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Warm weather continues Saturday and Sunday as an upper low moves
into the Pacific NW. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper
70s by Sunday, but will also be accompanied by strong southerly
winds at the surface. Also on Sunday, the GFS and Euro both show the
upper low ejecting a subtle wave, which would bring a chance for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late in the day.

Rain/thunderstorm chances continue Monday as the upper low breaks
down and ejects a series of shortwaves through the area. At the
surface, the local area should remain on the warm side of an
advancing cold front, which should allow for  and scattered
thunderstorm development...especially during the evening/overnight
as the GFS/Euro bring the front through. As of now, Monday
afternoon/evening would be the best chance for severe weather, but
this could still change substantially as it is 4 days away.
Monday is also expected to be the warmest day of the week with
high temperatures around 80 degrees.

On Tuesday, current model solutions show that the main threat for
thunderstorms will push just southeast of the forecast area with
the cold front. That said, if timing slows down, this activity
could end up focusing more squarely over the forecast area,
increasing our chances for thunderstorms and severe weather.

By Wednesday, both GFS and Euro start bringing the larger upper
trough through the area, which will bring continued chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Their timing varies, but both appear to dig
it far enough south that we would end up on the cold side of the
warm front and in a more unfavorable environment for severe
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

General overview:
Confidence is high in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout, with the
only clouds to speak of occurring during these first few hours and
even then any ceiling will be up around 10k ft. There is a small
chance for a few sprinkles these first couple hours as well, and
this is hinted at with a "VCSH" mention. Otherwise, gusty north
winds this afternoon are the main concern...read on for more
details.

Winds:
If anything, this TAF issuance may contain a bit too much wind
detail, but the main story is that the strongest winds of the
period will focus during these first 6 hours, with northerly
sustained speeds generally 20-25KT/gusts around 30KT. This
evening, speeds will steadily diminish by sunset and become
generally light westerly overnight. Late in the period between
16-18Z Friday, another speed increase will start to occur, with
west-northwest gust potential approaching 20KT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

..This is currently projected to be the SECOND-COLDEST APRIL on
record at Grand Island/Hastings..

Based on observations from the first 25 days and forecast
expectations from today through month`s end, both Grand Island and
Hastings airports (our two primary long-term climate data sites)
are on pace to have the 2nd-coldest April on record, trailing only
April 1920 in the record books. For those possibly hoping that we
might set a new record for coldest April this month, the above-
normal temperatures anticipated Friday-Monday are expected to
"wreck" this opportunity, and slide April 2018 into 2nd place.
Stay tuned for more specific info on this next week.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch



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