


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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518 FXUS63 KGID 132245 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 545 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (15%) chance for an isolated storm early this evening within far northern/northwest parts of our forecast area. IF storms develop they could produce small hail and gusty winds. - Warmer weather on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s. - Higher chances for showers/storms arrive Tuesday night- Wednesday some of which could be strong-severe, though details remain uncertain. - Cooler weather on Thursday (70s/80s) before temperatures warm back to the 80s/90s by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 This Afternoon Through Tonight... Temperatures this afternoon are currently sitting in the 80s under sunny skies and light southerly winds. A frontal boundary is currently located along a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth and into southwestern Minnesota. An area of cumulus is evident on satellite along this boundary. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along this boundary over the next few hours. Most CAM guidance keeps the forecast area capped and largely storm free, though a couple of models (WRF-NSSL & FV3) continue to show the potential for scattered development so felt it was worth it to keep a 15% PoP in the far northwest. If storms do develop and move into far northwestern portions the area, they could be on the stronger side, owing to CAPE values over 2000 J/Kg. Mid level lapse rates below 6C/Km and shear being modest (25kts) should prevent any storm from becoming severe. Still, gusty winds and small hail will be possible in storms if they develop. Any storm will come to an end by sunset due to the loss of daytime/peak heating. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Monday... Northwesterly flow aloft will become zonal on Monday, as a shortwave trough breaks down western ridging. Monday looks to be dry across the area. Highs on Monday will climb into the 90s, aided by strengthening southerly flow. Winds will be breezy at times across western portions of the area, gusting 20-25mph. Tuesday and Wednesday... A surface low associated with an approaching shortwave trough will deepen on Tuesday. Another warm day is expected on Tuesday with highs in the 90s, and nearing the 100s across southwestern portions of the area. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday afternoon along a cold front stretching from northwestern Nebraska into central South Dakota. The storms will likely form into a strong to severe MCS over time. The biggest question for these storms is how strong will they be when they enter/move through the forecast area Tuesday night (20-55% PoPs). Given their time of arrival (late evening/overnight), storms will be on the downtrend, but how quickly storms weaken/dissipate is uncertain at this time. Wednesday will likely be greatly impacted by how Tuesday night`s storms move through the area. A more robust/longer lasting MCS could push the stationary front entirely southeast of the forecast area, resulting in a cooler, drier day. A weaker/shorter lasting MCS would result in a stationary front setting up across portions of the area on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 70s/low 80s north of the front, to the upper 80s-mid 90s south of the front. Another shortwave trough will move into the Plains on Wednesday, aiding the development of thunderstorms along the stationary front. These storms would have the potential to become severe, though again details (position of front, instability/shear, outflow boundaries) are uncertain at this time. Thursday Onwards... Cooler weather is expected on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly flow returns to the area Friday onwards, as highs climb back near their climatological normals (upper 80s, low 90s). Scattered, low probability chances (15-35%) for storms litter the long range portion of the forecast due to a series of shortwave disturbances moving through the area. The details on any of these shortwaves is uncertain as model alignment begins to break down on the timing and strength of these disturbances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: This is a very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility forecast, with in fact little cloud cover whatsoever except for perhaps a few periods of few-to-scattered cumulus based around 7-9K ft. AGL. Confidence is also very high (at least 90%) that it remains precipitation/thunderstorm-free (TAFs reflect this). The only low probability exception is a roughly 10% chance that a spotty shower/weak thunderstorm manages to drift in from the north right away this evening mainly prior to 02Z, but the vast majority of any such potential activity should focus 50+ miles north of KGRI/KEAR. Winds will also not be a significant issue, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 11KT (and even any higher gusts...primarily Monday afternoon...only 15-16KT). Direction will generally prevail southerly, but will lean toward southwesterly/southeasterly at times. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Pfannkuch