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000
FXUS63 KGRB 092003
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
303 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Quiet August day ongoing with dry conditions prevailing as high
pressure pushes overhead and only a few daytime cumulus clouds
pushing across the area. Humidity levels were on the comfortable
side, with temps mainly in the 70s. Quiet weather in the short
term with the only forecast concerns revolving around if/where
some fog can develop overnight and if/where a shower or storm will
develop on Wednesday.

For tonight...a quiet night is in store for the area as surface
high pressure slides east of the area. Conditions not as favorable
tonight for fog as boundary layer winds increase while moisture
decreases. Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog overnight due to
the recent rains, but do not anticipate anything widespread.
Otherwise, look for clear skies and winds generally under 10 mph.
Lows look to fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

For Wednesday...surface ridge continues to push away from the
area as a weak cool front drops south into the state. A band of
high-based clouds looks to accompany the front at times. Limited
moisture will keep this a mainly dry frontal passage for the area,
but still can`t rule out a shower or very isolated storm as the
front reaches the lakeshore and Fox Valley in the mid to late
afternoon. Winds will shift to the north/northwest behind the
front, with winds becoming northeast, and a little gusty, closer
to the bay and Lake Michigan. Highs look to climb into the 80s for
most spots, except for the far north where an earlier arrival of
the front looks to keep highs in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Overall, the extended forecast will be relatively quiet. A broad
upper ridge over the western Great Plains and eastern Rockies will
dictate most of the weather for the extended period, with
predominantly northwesterly flow over the area through the
weekend.

Wednesday night through Friday...Northwesterly flow aloft and
weak CAA through the period will gradually bring in high pressure
conditions Wednesday night. The high pressure system will then
gradually settle in over the area through Thursday before slowly
transitioning east Friday. This will mean a period of mostly clear
skies, quiet weather, and seasonally cool temps. Highs during the
day will be in the 70s for most, around 5 degrees cooler than
normal. Lows overnight will generally be in the 50s both
Wednesday/Thursday night for central WI, and in the upper 40s in
the northwoods. A few of the typical cool spots may even drop into
the middle 40s.

Rest of the forecast...As the aforementioned surface high
pressure system exits to our east return flow will bring in some
WAA aloft late Friday night through Saturday. Isentropic forcing
in the mid levels could produce some scattered showers with this
sometime Saturday, but timing still varies. A few rumbles of
thunder could mix in, but severe potential looks limited at this
time. A few additional shower chances could then also follow for
next week. Not much of the warm air will reach the surface over
the weekend into next week, so surface temperatures will only be a
few degrees warmer than on Thursday/Friday, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Small chance
of some ground fog overnight, but threat too low to include in
any one TAF at this time. Daytime cumulus clouds will fade away
later this afternoon, with clear skies expected overnight. A
narrow band of clouds is possible as a cold front pushes across
the area on Wednesday. Limited moisture and forcing will keep
things dry through at least 18z Wednesday. Southwest to west winds
will remain on the light side this afternoon into early
Wednesday, then shift to the northwest behind the cold front late
Wednesday morning and afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Bersch