Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 241143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
443 AM PDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving inland across the
region will bring showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra
Nevada through the holiday weekend. Best chances will be Thursday
night into Friday, when a few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the San Joaquin Valley, mainly Fresno County northward.
Otherwise, mainly seasonal to below average temperatures with
occasional breezy to gusty conditions are expected through Saturday.
Afterward, a drying and warming trend will begin by Memorial Day.


.DISCUSSION...A developing Pacific trough is producing a
southwesterly onshore flow across central California. Temps will
be near climo today with a few showers possible over the Sierra

Model solutions are similar with the evolution of the trough
through the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend. A closed low is
progged to move onto the coast near central California overnight
tonight into Friday. This will bring a chance for showers from
Fresno County northward tonight, including in the SJ Valley.
Chances continue into Friday, with thunderstorms possible, as the
upper low moves slowly inland. Chances for showers and some
thunderstorms then continue over the Sierra through Saturday as
the low proceeds into the Great Basin area.

Friday and Saturday will also see temperatures dropping around
10-15 degrees below climo, with gusty winds developing as the
low moves through. As the low slowly fills and lifts northeast
Sunday into Memorial Day, precipitation chances will come to an
end, with just a slight chance of lingering convection over the
high Sierra Sunday. Temperatures will trend back upward, reaching
around 4-8 degrees above normal on Memorial Day.

Models develop another Pacific trough after Memorial Day, with
some differences in the strength, timing and trajectory of the
system. General agreement is that temperatures will trend back
toward seasonal averages through midweek, with a possibility of
some showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra each afternoon and


Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms with mountain obscurations
over the higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada from 20z
Thursday through 03Z Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere across the Central CA Interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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