Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 251122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR will prevail with a hot afternoon on the way. KCDS could see a
little mid-level cloud cover stream over from the north this
morning (and perhaps a rogue elevated shower), while they also
stand the best shot of a late afternoon high-based storm. In both
occasions, the odds of a direct terminal impact is too low for
inclusion in the TAF attm.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018/

A weak disturbance in northwest flow aloft is sustaining a small
convective complex across srn KS/nrn OK early Friday morning. some
additional development to the west across the OK Panhandle has
been struggling. As the disturbance tracks southeast and brushes
NW TX this morning, some of the high-res guidance develops
isolated t-storm activity across the far SE TX Panhandle and/or
Rolling Plains. This afternoon, strong heating and convergence
along the dryline may be sufficient for a few t-storms to overcome
the cap. Guidance suggests development in the vicinity of the
Caprock edge by 3-4 pm. The strongest convective signal is up in
the Hall/Childress County area, with activity less likely/more
isolated farther south along the dryline. Forecast soundings show
a typical inverted-V type sounding with MLCAPEs around 1000 J/kg
and 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear. This environment will support a
severe weather potential for high winds of 60-70 mph and a lesser
large hail threat. Any storms should die out pretty quickly after

Otherwise, the big story heading into the Memorial Day weekend
will be the hot temperatures. The heat-up begins in earnest today
with 850mb temps rising 4-5 degrees C and highs mainly in the
middle to upper 90s. The upper ridging strengthens further
Saturday and we expect high temperatures to reach/exceed 100F
across all but the northwest counties of the forecast area.
Sunday`s temperatures should be very similar although a weak
shortwave lifting northeast across NM may provide some subtle
cooling. In addition, this wave could weaken the cap just enough
for a few storms to develop along the surface trough across the
western South Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening.

A stronger shortwave will eject across the central plains Memorial
Day, temporarily flattening the upper ridge. This will result in
another few degrees of cooling (but remaining hot) and there
could be another round of isolated storms on the Caprock late in
the day. Increased deep-layer westerly flow aloft should bring
drier conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday, despite a shortwave
moving across the plains. Behind the wave, the upper ridge will
reamplify across West Texas mid to late week, and send
temperatures back north of 100F again for many locations. Dry
forecast continues after Memorial Day.




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