Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 180018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
818 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Light winds will continue overnight with mainly clear skies.
Patchy fog will possible late tonight, but mainly just over
interior regions, away from the TAF sites. By late Sunday
morning, a weak southeast sea breeze may develop along the east
coast TAF sites, along with a Gulf breeze, which would affect
KAPF. Otherwise, VFR conds with P6SM vis.


Quiet conditions this evening will continue through the night.
Some late night fog is expected, especially across the western
interior. Only grids updated this evening were hourly ones to
account for current conditions and near-term model forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018/


SHORT TERM (Tonight though Monday night)
Both temperature and moisture have increased slightly today, and
this trend will continue through weekend as high pressure
dominates. Wind will be fairly light, and some radiational fog is
expect over interior and western sections late tonight and again
late Sunday night/early Monday morning.  By Monday, flow will
begin to increase out of the southwest as a shortwave trough
deepens over the MS valley, this will boost temperatures further
as well as increase moisture.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday)
A cold front will enter northern Florida Tuesday and pass through
South Florida Tuesday night. Ahead of it gusty southwest wind
Tuesday will allow temperatures to reach well into upper 80s
across the region. With shortwave trough passing to the north, jet
max over northern Florida, and overall strong low-level wind
field, there will be plenty of support for convection to the
north, some strong. Across South Florida, most of Tuesday appears
dry, and by the time the front crosses Tuesday night, winds will
have already veered WSW and best dynamics will depart to the
northeast as the trough and associated surface low lifts
northeast. Thus, rain chances are not that high, despite
significant moisture in place. Instability will be fairly high, so
at least isolated thunderstorms appear reasonable.

Skies will clear Wednesday and cooler air will spill into the
area. Temperatures will be below normal for the remainder of
the week, as cool air is reinforced by another cold front
Thursday. Maxima will be in the 70s, with minima in the 40s
interior, 50s coasts/metropolitan areas.

High pressure overhead will keep light wind in place through the
weekend. SW winds increase Monday ahead of the next storm system.
Hazardous SW wind is possible Tuesday, followed by some gusty
northwest wind and elevated seas behind a cold front Tuesday night
into Thursday. Some thunderstorms may accompany the front Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Moisture will increase Sunday, with no fire weather concerns
expected through Tuesday. A cold front will bring much drier
conditions in for the latter half of the week. Although there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms with the front, widespread
significant rainfall is not expected, and fire weather concerns
may again return Wednesday into the weekend.

West Palm Beach  61  82  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  66  82  69  85 /   0   0   0  10
Miami            66  82  69  87 /   0  10   0   0
Naples           63  81  67  82 /   0   0   0  10




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