


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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237 FXUS64 KMOB 150623 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 123 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 While it will be hot on Tuesday, all eyes will turn to the Gulf as we head into the middle to latter part of the week. The ridge overhead continues to get nudged westward slightly by an inverted trough sliding out of the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The ridge still remains overhead somewhat on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system slides over the Gulf. Hottest day of the week is Tuesday, but it`ll still be toasty on Wednesday. Expect highs to top out in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with the hottest spots in the Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama ( few spots may even hit the century mark for a short period of time late this afternoon). Heat indices should remain below advisory criteria today for the majority of the area with one or two spots along the coast (likely Destin and Gulf Shores) potentially tagging 108 for an hour or so. Meanwhile, looking out into the Gulf, there`s not much to talk about right this second, but that will change as we roll into the middle of the week. An area of low pressure currently off the eastern coast of Florida will trek across the Florida peninsula through the day today and eventually pop out into the Gulf late on Tuesday. Conditions are generally favorable for gradual development (if it remains offshore) and a tropical depression could form somewhere over the northern Gulf at some point on Wednesday or Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether or not this develops into a tropical depression and regarding the eventual track of the system. One potential scenario is that the system moves into the Gulf and remains near the coastline with less time to develop. Another scenario is that this system moves a little further out into the Gulf with more time to develop. Regardless of development, we will get drenched with heavy rain (especially across the southern portion of the area), which may lead to flooding issues if storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Our current forecast has 3- 4 inches of rain across our coastal counties in AL/FL and up into our southern tier of MS counties. That said, high-end rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible (not overly likely, but a possible scenario) in that corridor. In addition to heavy rain, the risk for rip currents quickly increases to a HIGH RISK on at least Thursday and Friday as swell reaches our beaches from this system moving across the Gulf. This means that breakers at the beaches may approach High Surf Advisory criteria. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the area, especially over the western Florida Panhandle. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Light and variable winds are expected this morning, with winds generally becoming northwesterly to northerly by the afternoon hours. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 117 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms today. By Wednesday, onshore flow develops as an area of low pressure moves westward across the northern Gulf. If a tropical depression develops in the middle to late part of the week, expect an increase in seas and winds. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 96 75 94 74 89 74 87 74 / 20 20 80 60 100 60 90 30 Pensacola 97 77 92 77 88 78 88 78 / 30 50 90 70 90 60 90 30 Destin 96 79 91 79 89 80 90 81 / 50 50 90 70 90 60 80 20 Evergreen 98 74 95 73 91 73 91 73 / 20 20 60 30 90 30 80 20 Waynesboro 96 74 97 74 91 73 89 73 / 10 10 40 30 90 20 80 20 Camden 96 74 95 74 90 74 89 73 / 10 10 40 20 80 10 80 10 Crestview 98 74 93 74 89 74 90 73 / 50 40 90 40 100 40 90 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob