


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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315 FXUS66 KMTR 162319 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 419 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Below seasonal temperatures continue through tomorrow before a slight warming trend begins Friday into the weekend. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations with drier conditions beginning this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temperatures continue today and tomorrow with highs running about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. This is due to a deeper marine layer (around 2000 feet) thanks to persistent upper level troughing along the West Coast. High temperatures on Thursday will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the interior with highs in the interior East Bay Hills and far interior Central Coast reaching the low 90s. Coastal temperatures will remain cooler with highs in the 60s. We can expect another night of overcast conditions and coastal drizzle before conditions start to dry out Friday into the weekend. Diurnally breezy winds are expected across mountain gaps/passes, along ridgetops, and within valleys. Peak gusts will generally be around 25 mph but in areas where terrain funneling is likely (e.g. Altamont Pass) gusts may be locally closer to 35 mph. Localized elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher elevations where drier, warmer conditions persist. Remember, one less spark, one less wildfire. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 245 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The overall forecast remains on track with a warming trend to begin across the interior Friday as upper level troughing pushes northward. Temperatures will warm by two to four degrees on Friday with additional warming expected over the weekend. This will bring us back to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the weekend with far interior East Bay and Central Coast reaching the mid to upper 90s. Latest guidance suggests that high pressure will not build in more firmly over California until Sunday when we see temperatures peak. Temperatures are set to cool back down into the mid 70s to low 80s across the interior Monday as upper level troughing redevelops and pushes the center of the high pressure back over the Four Corners region. Winds will remain diurnally breezy along the coast, mountain gaps/passes, and along ridgetops with gusts to around 25 to 30 mph. Locally elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher terrain above 2000 ft. Conditions will dry further across the interior with daytime humidity minimums dropping to around 15% to 25% across the far interior Central Coast and East Bay Hills starting Saturday. Remember: one less spark, one less wildfire. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 419 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Patchy coastal MVFR-IFR stratus extends across the Bay Area and Central Coast, with significant inland intrusions north of the Golden Gate and the Monterey Bay region. Breezy onshore winds continue through the evening hours, when they will diminish as stratus builds inland. Moderate confidence for stratus impacts at the inland terminals (particularly LVK) through the night into Thursday morning. Stratus will retreat to the immediate coast through Thursday morning with breezy onshore flow resuming in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... VFR conditions continue through the evening with breezy and possibly gusty west-southwest winds. MVFR-IFR stratus will move over the terminal this evening with moderate confidence on timing. The stratus will dissipate Thursday morning with a breezy west-southwest flow resuming in the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR-IFR stratus continues across the terminals, courtesy of a good onshore flow, with low confidence for any further scattering at the terminals before the evening. Stratus should persist overnight before clearing through Thursday morning, potentially into the early afternoon for MRY. Breezy onshore winds continue through the evening hours, with the winds turning light overnight before resuming Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 419 PM PDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Although light to moderate winds will continue to prevail across the majority of the coastal waters through this weekend, gusty winds have developed across the San Pablo and Suisun Bays as well as the West Delta this afternoon, resulting in small craft conditions. These gusts will continue through this evening, before gradually weakening overnight. Moderate seas will also continue through the remainder of the work week, rebuilding to become rough in the outer waters by Saturday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea