390
FXUS66 KMTR 150448
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
948 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages with a
   more noticeable cooling trend beginning Tuesday.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations.

 - Slight warming trend later this week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

High temperatures were in the 80s to low 90s today across the
interior while the hottest regions of interior Napa County, East
Bay Hills, and the interior Central Coast reached the upper 90s to
low 100s. Temperatures remain on track to cool slightly tomorrow
which should keep highs in the upper 70s to 80s across much of the
interior. In terms of overnight stratus coverage, the marine
layer is expected to deepen to around 1500 ft Tuesday with another
night of widespread stratus coverage expected. The Fort Ord
Profiler shows the marine layer is currently around 1200 ft with
it expected to deepen further overnight. Pockets of fog are
possible around commute time tomorrow morning along the coast,
North Bay Valleys, and SF Bay Shoreline. Similarly, drizzle is
likely along the coast and in areas where orographic uplift is
favored early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1207 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Visible satellite imagery is showing less cloud cover along the
coast then previously thought. This is as the marine layer is mixing
out thanks to southerly flow at the surface and more
westerly/northwesterly aloft. Afternoon temperatures will be similar
to those yesterday, upper 50s to lower 70s near the coast, 80s to
upper 80s just inland away from the coast, and 90s to near 100
degrees (very isolated in nature) in the far interior.

With the marine layer forecast to deepen tonight ahead of an
approaching mid/upper level trough, low clouds will spread back
inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Coastal drizzle is also
likely as we have seen the past few days during the late night and
early morning hours on Tuesday.

Once low clouds dissipate across inland areas, temperatures will be
some 5-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon in response to the
trough aloft. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s
to mid 80s inland and the upper 60s to the mid 70s along the
Bayshore, with the coast remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

From previous forecaster: "Localized elevated fire weather threat
continues across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s
influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20-
35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25-40%, and localized gusts to 25
mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However,
the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat
being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter
winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night."

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1210 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025
(Tuesday night through Sunday)

A slight warming trend is expected heading towards the upcoming
weekend. Ensemble model cluster analysis does feature scenarios
where troughing and ridging develop over the northwestern United
States through the upcoming weekend. However, in terms of sensible
weather, most of the impacts from any deviation in the weather
pattern will be felt across the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies, with muted impacts across central California. Although
the exact details are still subject to variation, the current
forecast sees temperatures across the inland valleys rising to the
80s and lower 90s, up to the upper 90s in the warmest locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Stratus and patchy fog /IFR-LIFR/ continue along the coastline
while VFR continues inland. It`s a challenging forecast tonight
and Tuesday since lower level cool air advection will begin to
weaken the lower level temperature inversion, likely increasing
the marine layer depth later on tonight and Tuesday. Onshore winds
will otherwise continue to usher stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/ inland
tonight and Tuesday morning. Stratus mixes out to MVFR-VFR along
the coastline, inland VFR will prevail Tuesday. HREF output shows
a stratus intrusion Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...West-northwest wind easing through mid to late
evening. VFR continuing through mid evening then tempo IFR 06z-10z
then IFR-MVFR prevailing until 18z Tuesday. Lower level cool air
advection will likely deepen the marine layer overnight and Tuesday.
Otherwise VFR is forecast from late Tuesday morning through early
Tuesday evening, stratus /MVFR/ then returns mid and late Tuesday
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Increasing stratus and fog /IFR-LIFR/
tonight and Tuesday morning. Similar to the Bay Area, lower level
cool air advection will likely deepen the marine layer. Otherwise
VFR is forecast from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Stratus /MVFR/ returns Tuesday evening and night. Mainly onshore
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest
winds increasing to 10 to 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. Northwest
wind gusts to 25 knots in the Salinas Valley Tuesday afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 911 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong
northerly breezes and very rough seas will be present through
tomorrow for the northern outer waters. Aside from that, a gentle
to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail
through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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