


Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
867 AXPZ20 KNHC 132118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W from 03N northward into El Salvador, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 03N northward to 16N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 04N to 19N, moving westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 05N to 17N, moving westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N77W to across Costa Rica to 08N93W to 09N100W to 10N129W. The ITCZ extends from 10N129W to 10N139W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 91W, from 10N to 14N between 97W and 102W, from 06.5N to 13N between 106W and 130W, and from 11N to 13.5N between 130W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data as troughing prevails over the Baja California Peninsula, and gentle south of there. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf, except higher near the entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico under weak ridging. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S and are noted offshore of Baja, and seas of 5 to 6 ft in S swell are occurring offshore of southern Mexico, locally to 8 ft well offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec near some convection associated with a tropical wave. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high pressure builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to strong Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through late this week. Elsewhere, localized moderate SE to SW gap winds are expected in the Gulf of California into Mon. Fresh to strong S to SE winds will then develop over the northern Gulf early on Tue and continue through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft also extend through the waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas of 4 to 7 ft in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American waters. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally rough seas then expected later tonight through late week as high pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW swell will propagate through the South American waters tonight, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia through the middle of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1034 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near 42N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are in the belt from 10N to 18N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner with mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in advancing southerly swell across the waters south of 04N. North of 28N, 6 to around 8 ft seas in fresh northerly swell are present. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Locally rough seas will be possible north of 28N into early this evening. Elsewhere, occasionally fresh trade winds will generate short-period rough seas, from 12N to 14N west of 138W, through the early part of the week. A new S to SW swell will propagate through the southern waters over the next several days, promoting rough seas south of 05N. Looking ahead, a new N swell may lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek. $$ Lewitsky