Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
373 FXUS64 KBMX 102306 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 606 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 High pressure will remain over the Gulf, keeping westerly to southwesterly flow over the area through the short term. Diurnal convection is possible today and Friday. Overall lapse rates are not impressive and weak shear will be present. Thunderstorms could be strong, but not advertising severe at this time. Any thunderstorm and stronger shower could produce high rain rates with PW values max for this time of year, especially across the southern half of the state. There should be enough mid level winds for the storms to have movement, though any training or slower moving storms could cause localized flash flooding in a few areas. Depending on the duration and location of activity this evening, fog development is likely in those areas. Will need to watch activity tonight to see where the likely areas will be for fog. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 High pressure will be the main story through the extended. Saturday, diurnal activity is expected, with mid level flow out of the west and southwest. By Sunday, the high strengthens over the southwestern part of the state as an upper level trough moves across the Ohio Valley and into the eastern states. This will transition the low level flow to the north and northwest. Though diurnal activity is expected, the coverage could be slightly less Sunday with weaken moisture advection with the wind shift. By Monday, the high will be firmly across the southeast US with diurnal activity again. Tuesday, models are trying to show another trough moving across the northern parts of the country, bringing a weak boundary or area of rain. There is some uncertainty if this will be enough to push the high off to other areas, but confidence is low. Right now will advertise the high should remain, if not weaker, through at least Wednesday. Diurnal activity will remain each day. 24 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025 As storms begin to clear, terminals should return back into VFR category. However, MVFR VIS is likely again overnight between 11/10 and 11/14z. Beyond that, thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow afternoon, with reduced VIS likely with any thunderstorm activity. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with elevated rain chances through Friday and somewhat lower chances for the weekend. 20 foot winds should remain less than 8 mph from the west and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 89 69 91 / 20 60 10 50 Anniston 71 88 70 89 / 20 70 20 50 Birmingham 71 89 71 90 / 20 70 10 50 Tuscaloosa 72 89 73 92 / 10 60 10 50 Calera 72 88 72 90 / 20 60 10 50 Auburn 72 89 72 90 / 20 60 20 40 Montgomery 72 91 72 92 / 30 60 20 50 Troy 71 90 71 92 / 30 60 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION.../44/