497
FXUS63 KDDC 171655
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend,
  with many locations warming well into the 90s Sunday
  afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283
  Sunday afternoon. Some storms will likely be severe with large
  hail.

- A cold front is expected to provide cooler air Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Midnight infrared satellite imagery depicted a clear sky over
SW KS with a few wisps of cirrus. Shortwave was passing well
south, with clouds and any associated showers and thunderstorms
well south in the Texas panhandle. Winds will remain light and
variable through sunrise Friday, with low temperatures in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.

A pronounced warming trend is expected Friday through Saturday,
with 00z models in agreement, showing strong rises in
thickness, heights and 850 mb temperatures through the period.
Models show a net warming of 4-6C at 850 mb over Thursday,
supporting afternoon temperatures well into the 80s. Expecting
few if any clouds in the dry subsident regime of building
heights, with tame south winds of 10-20 mph.

Boundary layer winds are expected to assume an easterly component
on Saturday, but despite the addition of upslope, models show
another 2- 4C of warming at 850 mb, with 500 mb heights > 580 dm
by 7 pm. Roughly the southeast half of SW KS is expected to
warm into the lower 90s. 00z NAM shows modest instability
(MUCAPE 1-2k) with dewpoints in the 50s. Many models including
NAM/ECMWF suggest an attempt at high based initiation Saturday
afternoon, but the probability of measurable rain was kept at
<15%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Low amplitude shortwave is forecast to be near Grand Canyon,
Arizona 7 am Sunday, and arrive over SW KS around peak heating
Sunday afternoon/evening. A strong dryline is expected to be in
place roughly along the US 283 corridor Sunday afternoon, with
strong instability east of the boundary. Dewpoints well into the
60s and CAPE > 3,000 J/kg are expected in the warm sector east
of the dryline. The majority of guidance suggest convective
initiation along the dryline around 4-5 pm, in an environment of
instability and shear clearly supportive of supercells. Strong
consensus that any severe threat will be focused on the
northeast zones of the DDC CWA, northeast of DDC, and after
coordination with SPC the Day 3 risk area will highlight these
zones. Global models including 00z GFS also show a pronounced
warm dry push at 700 mb, with 700 mb temperatures as warm as
+13C. As such, even though trough timing with the diurnal
heating cycle currently looks favorable, initiation is far from
certain with such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb.
NBM pops continue to favor the northeast zones, and these were
accepted. Temperatures will soar into the 90s Sunday, especially
west of the dryline, where highs in the 96-98 range are
expected. Winds will be stronger than all guidance Sunday, and
increased S/SW winds to the 90%ile of the NBM.

Next week, models to varying degrees and placements depict a
cold front making southward progress across the plains. Cold
front progress into Kansas on Monday is expected to be slow
enough such that southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma will still
be hot, well into the 90s. Indeed, 00z GEFS ensemble members
show a 30-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 100 Monday
afternoon in the favored Red Hills southeast of DDC (Ashland to
Coldwater). Cooler air is expected to make better progress
through the central plains Tuesday, with 00z EPS/ECMWF placing
the cold front well south into West Texas at 7 am Wednesday.
00z GEFS/MEX guidance Tuesday/Wednesday is significantly cooler
than the NBM, so the forecast may not be cool enough.

Regarding rain/thunderstorm chances, pops favor the northern
zones in the post frontal environment Monday night. Pops (as
well as any severe potential) appear to dwindle quickly Tuesday
and Wednesday, as a cooler more stable boundary layer pushes
instability southward out of SW KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42