Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
948 FXUS66 KHNX 151144 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 444 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cooldown will take place on Sunday and continue on Monday. Temperatures will lower to below average on Monday and remain below average through Thursday. 2. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM Sunday night through 5 PM Monday afternoon above 8,000 feet from Fresno County to Yosemite NP. There is a 65 percent probability of 2 inches or more of snow at Tioga Pass as snow levels drop to 7500 feet on Monday. 3. There is a 10 to 50 percent probability for measurable rainfall across the San Joaquin Valley on Monday. 4. Winds will pick up in Eastern Kern County on Monday and again later in the week. These increases in wind gusts can increases the threat of wildfires despite better humidity recovery. && .DISCUSSION... A large upper trough is developing across the region with an upper low to form over the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California this afternoon. The low will move over central California on Monday before quickly shifting northeast over the Great Basin Monday night. Upper trough remains over the region Tuesday then additional energy drops down with another closed upper low over central California on Wednesday and Thursday. The low shifts east on Friday with east Pacific upper ridging nudging inland next weekend. Temperatures will begin to trend downward today with more cooling to the north. Probabilities for a high temperature greater than 85 degrees today range from around 30 percent in Merced to 95 percent in Bakersfield. A much cooler air mass settles over the region on Monday with highs expected to be around 15 degrees below climatological normals for this time of the year. PoE for a high temperature greater than 75 degrees on Monday range from around 15 percent in Merced to 30 percent in Fresno and 50 percent Bakersfield. Temperatures rebound a little to around 10 degrees below normal Tuesday through Thursday with Wednesday likely the coolest. High temperatures are forecast to return to near normal on Friday and possibly climb slightly above normal on Saturday. Precipitation chances develop Sunday evening and continue through Monday afternoon. The best chances remain over the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite NP to Sequoia & Kings Canyon NP. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Sierra above 8000 feet from 11 PM Sunday through 5 PM PDT Monday. Probability for greater than 2 inches of snowfall is up to 65 percent at Tioga Pass. The probability for measureable rainfall across the San Joaquin Valley ranges from as high as 50 percent in Merced to only 10 percent in Bakersfield. Merced has a 35 percent probability for a tenth of an inch of rainfall while Bakersfield has only a 4 percent chance. Dry weather is forecast on Tuesday then the next upper low will bring additional chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities near wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory above 8000 feet from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Monday for CAZ323-326>328. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford