623
FXUS61 KOKX 091924
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
324 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain south of the region through
Friday night, with a series of weak waves of low pressure
traveling along it. A cold front then slowly approaches from the
west on Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into
Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon
through Tuesday before returning as a warm front Wednesday. A
series of frontal waves may impact the area to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A frontal boundary will remain south of the region tonight as
the first of a series of weak low pressure systems travel along
this front. Current radar is showing weak returns, however the
moisture is not reaching the ground. This evening, the column
will gradually moisten, with showers developing across much of
the forecast area.

With an easterly onshore flow, any showers will transition to
more of an stratiform rain. Much of the time the rain will be
light, with perhaps a couple of moderate pulses late tonight
into early Friday morning. Temperatures should average closer to
normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially
during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier
conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level
moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we
will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall,
still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and
continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.

The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east
Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with
some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more
intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an
end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so
for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW
sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50
for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a
washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening
into Sunday.

*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.

*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the
week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this
time.

*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable
levels next week.

A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside
over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass
to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief
period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late
Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of
the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the
northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface
ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs
both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively
flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also
linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the
rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of
the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle
of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should
evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the
modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM
PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of
uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may
be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not
resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into
Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in
the coming days as the models become better resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A wave of low pressure tracks along a stalled boundary over the
Mid Atlantic into tomorrow.

VFR thru early this evening. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z
as showers expand in coverage and cigs lower, becoming MVFR for
western terminals by 3Z, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak
Friday and for the AM push, particularly western and coastal
terminals. Likely little improvement until early Friday
afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
Additional showers may continue into Friday evening, though
coverage and placement is lower confidence at this time.

A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional
gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon
progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly late this
afternoon as the low approaches to the south and any sea breezes
push inland, likely thru 22Z or so. Direction backs easterly
tonight and 20 to 25 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks
closer. ENE flow 10-15G20kt persists thru Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional 20 kt gusts possible this afternoon.

Timing of S/SE flow into this evening may be off by an hour or two.

Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of
showers, may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday PM: Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters
tonight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY
Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more
occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By
Friday the winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they
gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are
also expected to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected
for the western and central ocean zones through Friday night for
lingering seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
this weekend through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday
towards 20 kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon
earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping
water levels high.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized
moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of
southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern
and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories
are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens,
Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE
Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for
the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the
forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide
levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An
advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower
NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester
coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW
Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.

E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels
begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the
Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or
fall short.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ071-078.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ074-075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
     for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ338-350.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...