687
FXUS61 KOKX 101818
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further
south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving
offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Gloomy end to the workweek with a strung out wave of low pressure
passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Intermittent periods of rain,
mostly light, persist much of the day. Expanding coverage this
afternoon as the trough axis moves through, before conditions
begin to dry out this evening. Rain should taper everywhere by
midnight or just before. Additional QPF total perhaps up to a
quarter inch.

With the rain, clouds, and onshore wind, temperatures run a good
10 to 15 degrees below normal for early to mid May. A few
places in SE CT may approach 60 where rain will be minimized,
but otherwise low to mid 50s can be expected elsewhere. An east
breeze will be noticeable along the coast, adding to the chill.

Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud cover
diminishes considerably overnight, perhaps even becoming clear
toward daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will get a few degrees
below normal tonight, looks for lows to mainly be in the lower
and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a
bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday.
Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore
wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower
and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening
look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an
introduction of slight chance of showers across far western
sections before day`s end.

For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with
more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with
consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance
PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead
of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few
degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass
offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back
over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much
surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The
atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will
primarily be in the mid/upper-50s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat
ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger
into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased
sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to
the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with
most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a
southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area.

Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream
shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards
the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal
system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle
Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low
passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early
Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in from the northeast this afternoon
and tonight and remains over the Northeast through Saturday.

Conditions are improving over eastern terminals as clouds are
scattering out there. Expect improvement to continue from
northeast to southwest, with a forecast return to VFR by 21Z or
sooner. Showers are also still possible, but they are expected
to be light and have no impact to visibility, dissipating as
they head into the high pressure.

East winds increase to around 10-15 kt. Gusts for the most part
are more occasional to around 20 kt. Winds shift more NE this
evening into tonight, then back to the E Saturday morning before
sea breezes affect the terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Conditions becoming VFR this afternoon, possibly a few hours
earlier than is forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. SE winds 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms. SW G15-20kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower in showers and t-storms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions across all waters today with gusts at 25
to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions should return
to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas likely remaining
on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub small craft
conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on the ocean
for much of this weekend. South winds may increase Monday
evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters just
below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet during
this time frame.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be
less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for
the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens,
along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen
based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and
ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn,
Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were
previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern
Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels
have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor
benchmarks.

Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could
be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise
this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come
to an end later in the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...JE/BR
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...