Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 270100
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
900 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move through the area tonight into
early Friday bringing some rain and possible isolated
thunderstorms. High pressure will build across the region this
weekend into early next week bringing dry weather and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
An upper level low to our west over the Tennessee Valley will
lift northwest of the forecast area overnight while a weak
surface low crosses over the region bringing showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms. Regional radar showing the
initial band of showers pushing through the western Midlands
and CSRA as of 23z and this should continue to shift eastward
with time. The line has shown some signs of weakening as it
moves east and could be related to the fact it is moving away
from the better dynamics with the upper system and marginal
moisture transport. Instability has been very weak to neutrally
stable with no thunder reported in the line.

There could be some intensification or redevelopment later this
evening as the upper support moves through the region but the
severe threat looks quite low at this time. Have made some
adjustments to the hourly temps, pops and weather to account
for current trends. Most of the rain is expected to push east of
the forecast area by 06z or so. Overnight lows expected to fall
into the 50s with coldest temps in the western Midlands and
upper CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cannot rule out a few lingering showers over portions of the
northern Midlands Friday morning before drying moves in. The
atmosphere will dry out Friday night as another trough of low
pressure crosses the area.

Highs on Friday in the mid 70s. Lows will be in the lower 50s
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather still expected to prevail for much of the extended
period. A broad upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will
slowly move off the coast into Monday. Models indicting upper
ridge will finally begin to build into the eastern portions of
the country by the middle of next week, bringing warmer
temperatures to the area into Thursday. Daytime highs in the
mid and upper 70s will moderate to the mid 80s by midweek.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions expected through mid morning then returning to VFR
for the remainder of the period.

Low pressure will cross the area tonight with rain moving
through the terminals over the next couple of hours. Rain will
move through in one main band with some scattered showers behind
the line. Will handle the lingering showers with a tempo group
in later issuances if needed. Low will move away from the area
during the morning with drier air moving in through the
remainder of the period. Expect some cumulus to develop during
the late morning and afternoon hours with bases around 3500
feet. Winds through the period will be westerly at 9 knots or
less...with some gusts possible in and around heavier showers.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
No significant impacts to aviation expected Friday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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