Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 202359

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
659 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Still a lot of uncertainty on how to handle precip chances over the
next 24 hours. Main system to our southwest to begin lifting north
northeast through forecast area tonight. Will see additional rounds
of showers and storms develop and move through depending on how fast
the atmosphere recovers from this mornings storms. So exact timing
and placement of activity still hard to pin down, so just kept high
chance pops for the area. As for chances of severe storms, again
depends on recovery of atmosphere. As of 19z, CAPE values are back
above 1000 J/kg over southern half of Missouri, but lower and capped
further north.

By midday Monday, main cold front to exit forecast area with some
lingering activity diminishing by 00z Tuesday.

Lows tonight will be mild, in the low to mid 60s with highs on
Monday in the upper 70s to mid 80s.


.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

By Monday night, system finally exits and will have dry conditions
through at least mid week as surface ridge builds in. Some
differences in timing, strength and placement with next several
systems among the extended models. So kept slight/low chance pops
from time to time through rest of extended period.

As for temperatures, to remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the extended period.



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Main concerns tonight into Monday will center around thunderstorms
approaching from the southwest. Outside the cluster of storms,
concerns are limited with just mid/high clouds streaming in well
ahead of the activity. Winds are generally light and/or variably.

Thunderstorms chances will increase after 00z, affecting KCOU
first, then spreading north and east overnight. Cigs will likely
drop to mvfr along the front with any vsby issues being confined
to those directly impacted by thunderstorms. Storm intensity will
likely wave through the late night hours, but cannot rule out a
few embedded storms.

The front finally pushes through from west to east Monday
afternoon. We may see a few afternoon storms pop along and east of
the Mississippi River until the front clear. Otherwise expect
improving conditions through the afternoon hour from west to east.


We continue to watch thunderstorm development over southwest and
central Missouri. Ahead of the activity VFR conditions will
continue with scattered/broken mid to high clouds and variable

Storms approach KSTL around midnight. Ceilings will remain VFR a
majority of the time. MVFR cigs could impact the site should
thunderstorms survive this far east. Will account for lower cigs
in amendments should they be necessary later this evening.

Overall improvement is in the forecast Monday, as the front drive
east of the area. Some signals show a few showers lingering
through morning with the possibility of scattered afternoon
storms. These should primarily stay east of KSTL with clouds
breaking with a clearing trend through the afternoon.





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