Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
342 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Tropical moisture will continue over the area into early next week
with high pressure offshore and frontal boundaries remaining to the
west and north. A cold front will approach from the north midweek.


As of 240 AM Sun...Persistent band of moderate showers
continues to move across the coastal plain counties this
morning. Expect this activity to continue, and slowly shift east
this morning. As high pressure is pinched southward, flow will
become more SW, and the focus for rain and thunderstorms today
will be near the coast in the SW-NE band. Have likely PoPs in
this corridor with chance PoPs on either side. Then, more
scattered showers are expected in the afternoon, as deep
moisture plume shifts to the south. Currently temperature are
in the low to mid 70s, and will drop a few degrees, into the
upper 60s to low 70s by daybreak. High temps today, will be
mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s, again thanks to considerable


As of 255 AM Sun...Scattered shower activity is expected
tonight, but will be mainly along the coast. Have chance PoPs
across the coast, with a slight chance of precip inland. Low
temps will be warm and muggy again, in the upper 60s to low 70s.


As of 330 AM Sunday...Little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the early part of the week, but a pattern shift
will occur around midweek as a back door front drops south
across the region, finally bringing some drier air to the region
for the latter portion of the week.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure ridge over the Atlantic to
continue to provide moist southwest winds across our area for
the early part of the week. Weak mid-level shortwave energy will
enhance convection a bit on Monday, but less activity is
indicated by the model consensus for Tuesday. High temperatures
will generally range in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...A pattern shift Wednesday night into
Thursday will bring in a drier pattern for the latter portion of
the week. Good model consensus for a back door cold front to
move into the CWA between 06z and 12z on Thursday. The front
will provide sufficient convergence to enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity ahead of it on Wednesday, before slightly
cooler and more stable air reaches the area Wednesday night.
PoP-wise, Wednesday appears to be the wettest day of the week.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Thursday with less
coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday...A light E/SE flow Friday become more
southerly on Saturday and increases a bit bringing a return of
more humidity and warmer temperatures. In fact, Saturday appears
to be the warmest day of the week with highs well into the 80s
away from the water. Rain chances Friday and Saturday will be
below climatology.


Short Term /Through Monday Morning/...
As of 305 AM Sun...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are present
across the region, with widespread MVFR conditions expected for
the rest of tonight, and some IFR conditions over the coastal
plain. Then, mostly VFR conditions are expected for most of
Sunday, although there will be scattered to numerous rain
showers, which could reduce flying conditions temporarily.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 335 AM Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday through Wednesday, mainly diurnally driven
during the afternoon and evening hours. This could produce some
occasional sub-VFR conditions. Drier and slightly cooler air
should produce a generally VFR day for Thursday.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 305 AM Sun...Small craft conditions will continue through
Sunday night across the southern and central waters for
hazardous seas of 4-7 ft, and southerly winds mostly 15-20 kts
with gusts around 25 kts. Seas and winds will begin to decrease
this evening, with winds becoming 10-15 kts by Monday morning,
with seas decreasing to 3-5 ft.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 340 AM Sunday...A very steady-state marine forecast
through midweek as high pressure offshore continues to provide
SW winds at 10-15 knots with seas running around 3 to 4 feet. A
back door front finally crosses the area between about 06z and
12z Thursday morning leading to a more NE wind flow, but winds
speeds should still remain at or below 15 knots with seas at 4
feet or less.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152.



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