


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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737 FXUS65 KTFX 140859 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 259 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures will continue across southwest Montana today while a strong cold front starts to make its way in from the north bringing cooler temperatures to north-central Montana. - Showers and thunderstorms will start along the Hi-Line by the late afternoon and become more widespread across the region by Tuesday morning. - Cooler temperatures and a widespread chance for rain will continue across the region Monday through Wednesday. - Return to more seasonable temperatures and dry conditions by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Over the next couple days an upper level trough will make its way across the state of Montana bringing a chance for widespread rain and even some high-mountain snow. Temperatures today will be the dichotomy of warmth across the southwestern portion of the state while the northern portion of the region starts out warm before a strong cold front makes its way into central Montana by the overnight hours. The first wave of precipitation will start this evening as showers and thunderstorms fire off across the Hi- Line and gradually become more widespread by early Tuesday morning. Rain, heavy at times, will continue through most of the day on Tuesday with the potential for snow showers above 8000ft. Rain will slowly taper off from northwest to southeast on Wednesday as the trough starts to exit the region by Wednesday evening. Behind the trough, quasi-northwest flow will help moderate temperatures Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon. This gradual warmup will be slowed by an incoming shortwave that arrives Thursday afternoon and brings another chance for more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind the shortwave upper level ridging starts to build over the weekend allowing seasonable temperatures and dry conditions to return to the region. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Severe Weather Potential Today: Similar to what occurred late Sunday night with storms coming down into Canada and making their way across the northern portions of the Hi-Line, a similar set up is expected this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front. There is currently a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today and the main concern will be wind gusts up to 65 mph. As of now, storms are expected to cross the International Border between 6-8PM and move east-southeast across the Hi-Line. QPF Monday-Wednesday: In general, QPF amounts have remained roughly the same compared to previous forecast runs. The heaviest precipitation is still expected along the Rocky Mountain Front as well as portions of central Montana including the Judith Basin, southern Chouteau, and Fergus county area. There is a slight hesitancy that the NBM QPF amounts are running a little high in some places. Some of the uncertainty is due to the disconnect between the deterministic amounts and the probabilities from the NBM. Right now the NBM has wide patches of 1"+ across central and north-central Montana but probabilistically, the NBM says there`s only a 30-50% of reaching 1" and only a 40-60% chance of these locations receiving 0.75" or more. The most likely scenario that I see occurring is many locations north of a line between Helena and the southern Fergus county border will receive at least 0.5" through Wednesday. Locations along the Rocky Mountain Front and portions of central Montana including the Judith Basin and Fergus county areas have the highest chance to reach 0.75". Higher amounts are most likely going to be fairly localized and very dependent on where the stronger embedded storms form within the band of precipitation. In a lot of ways this thought process justifies the 30-50% chance from the NBM of all locations in central and north-central Montana seeing 1" rain. It is certainly possible but it is generally less likely. Snow/Wind Along the Rocky Mountain Front: Snow levels will start out at 10-12,000 feet late Monday evening and gradually drop behind the cold front down to 8-10,000 feet by Tuesday morning. 700mb temperatures continue to build confidence in snow falling at the highest peaks of Glacier National Park. At this time, snow is expected to impact Logan Pass or locations below pass level. Thus the main impacts will be to those recreating in the backcountry. Winds will also pick up out of the northeast along the Rocky Mountain Front as the cold front makes its way south. At this point in time, winds east of the divide are not strong enough to warrant any high wind products, however, wind gusts up 50 mph should be expected for anyone recreating in the area. -thor && .AVIATION... 14/06Z TAF Period The initial concern this TAF period will be for gusty showers and thunderstorms across the Hi-Line through 10Z or so. Thereafter attention turns to a southward advancing cold front over the plains Monday afternoon, making it into Central and Southwest Montana valleys by the evening. A shift to gusty north winds is forecast behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds will be a concern across SW MT Monday afternoon, with a mix of showers, thunderstorms, and stratiform rain and associated low clouds behind the front further north over the plains. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 91 53 57 49 / 10 80 90 70 CTB 74 48 53 44 / 40 90 80 40 HLN 95 55 62 49 / 10 60 80 80 BZN 95 54 72 48 / 10 30 80 80 WYS 84 44 77 41 / 30 20 70 70 DLN 90 51 75 47 / 10 10 70 50 HVR 85 52 62 47 / 20 80 70 50 LWT 90 50 57 46 / 10 70 90 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls