Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 220659

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

A highly amplified upper ridge over the western states will shift
eastward to the High Plains today as an upper low moves
northeastward from just off the coast of New England to the Canadian
Maritimes. A shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to develop eastward to southern CA and the adjacent Southwest
through the period. West-southwesterly mid-level flow will increase
this afternoon across much of the Southwest and adjacent
southern/central High Plains ahead of the upper trough. A weak
surface low is forecast to form over the central High Plains, with
lee troughing becoming well defined over the southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
A modestly strengthening surface pressure gradient and increasing
mid-level flow overspreading the southern/central High Plains will
likely foster strong/gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph
across parts of southern AZ into southern/central/eastern NM, far
west TX, southeastern CO this afternoon. An antecedent dry airmass
is expected to remain over this region, and diurnal heating/mixing
of the boundary layer will promote reductions of RH values generally
into the 15-20% range for at least a few hours through peak heating.
Guidance suggests fuels will remain dry and receptive to large fire
starts, and elevated conditions should occur today. The forecast
overlap of winds in excess of 20 mph and RH values below 15% appears
too limited to include a critical delineation.

...Portions of the Southern FL Peninsula...
A dry, post-frontal airmass will remain across the FL Peninsula
today. Northerly winds around 10 mph will likely combine with RH
values falling into the 25-35% range for at least a few hours.
Portions of the southern FL Peninsula received a relative minimum of
precipitation with the prior cold front passage, and fuels are
generally dry/receptive across this area. Have therefore introduced
a small elevated area across the southern FL Peninsula.

..Gleason.. 03/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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