


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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802 FXUS62 KGSP 280230 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal through the the first half of next week. Expect afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. A weak cold front may reach our region by Tuesday then drift south of our area through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1030 PM EDT Friday: Current radar shows a few thunderstorms still holding on, but coverage is isolated at best and should completely dissipate over the next few hours. Lingering convective debris will hang out through the evening and should gradually shift out of the area overnight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with only minor tweaks made based on current observations and latest model trends. Expect another round of mountain valley fog overnight with some fog possible near lakes and rivers, or locations with heavy rainfall. Lows will be near normal for the mountains and a few degrees above normal elsewhere. Heights are slightly lower Saturday as a weak upper low moves north into the western Carolinas. The atmos becomes very unstable again with slightly better shear. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e are not as high as previous days, but not zero. Therefore, the overall threat of severe storms is lower, but an isolated damaging downburst is possible. PW values remain high with SE steering flow again which keeps a low end threat of training of cells or anchoring along SE facing ridges. Isolated flooding can`t be rule out. Highs will be near normal for the mountains and a few degrees above normal elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 PM Friday: The forecast continues tomorrow night into Sunday with a broad Bermuda high just off the east coast and broad/flat upper ridging extending across the southern CONUS. More active northern stream flow will be displaced north along the Canadian border where a trough will be sliding across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. A warm and humid airmass will remain entrenched across the Southern Appalachians with favorable conditions for above average coverage of diurnal thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Coverage may tick higher on Monday as the trough drops towards the Ohio Valley and heights gradually lower. As with any summertime convection, locally heavy rainfall and a few wet microbursts will be possible with any strong storms. Steering flow will be weak as well with very slow moving storms that could pose a threat for isolated flash flooding should several inches of rain quickly accumulate. Temperatures will remain seasonable. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1231 PM Friday: Previously mentioned trough will swing across the Ohio Valley and into New England on Tuesday with the trough axis also passing through the Appalachians. An attendant surface cold front will also drop towards the area which will help support the greatest rain chances of the period. Numerous to widespread thunderstorms are expected as the front moves into the area during peak heating on Tuesday. Flow remains weak, however, but at least loosely organized convective clusters/linear segments should be able to organize along composite cold pools. Thereafter, forecast confidence begins to lower by mid to late next week as guidance diverges with regards to how far south the frontal boundary makes it. Drier air behind the boundary would result in a notable downtrend in diurnal convection with just isolated potential. Should the front stall across or near the area, however, above average rain chances could continue. Will keep at least a slight chance for convection in the forecast until guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected for most terminals through much of the forecast period. A few isolated showers and storms are still in the area, but no threat to the terminals at this time. Otherwise, expect lingering convective debris across the area through tonight, while remaining VFR. Put 1SM and OVC002 TAF line at KAVL starting at 09Z Saturday for Mountain Valley fog/low stratus as there is another good chance for this to happen once again just before daybreak, similar to early this morning as long as convective debris scatters out to allow for radiational enhancement. Southwesterly winds will gradually subside later this evening and pick back up by mid-morning Saturday and last through the rest of the period outside of a wind shift from an outflow boundary as showers and thunderstorms will be possible during peak heating on Saturday once again. Placed a PROB30 at all TAF sites for another round of Summertime pop up showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Outlook: Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms into next week. Fog and/or low stratus possible each morning in the usual mountain valleys as well as near lakes and rivers. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CAC/RWH SHORT TERM...TW LONG TERM...TW AVIATION...CAC