Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 160601
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a vigorous cold front, much cooler air will
overspread the region tonight into Monday, but temperatures will
warm once again through midweek. Another cold front will move
through the area on Thursday, however this front is not expected to
produce much precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1055 PM Sunday: The Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled
and have made minor adjustments to temperatures and PoPs/Wx to
coincide with latest trends. The rest of the near term forecast
remains on track.

With a cold front moving off the Carolina coast and a weak boundary
situated along the eastern fringe of the FA, most of the rainfall
has tapered off across the FA as seen from latest radar imagery. Do
expect lingering showers holding on along and east of I-77 and
ongoing isolated showers across the northern mountains to taper off
within the next hour. Given trends, the Flash Flood Watch has been
cancelled.

Otherwise, anticipate CAA behind the front and increasing NW flow
will turn the precip to snow across the higher elevations. Can`t
rule out some flakes in the valleys, but any accums should be above
3500 feet with the best amounts in the Smokies and locations like
Beech Mtn. Even there, amounts should max out near 2 inches, but
slightly higher amounts are possible. Since accums will be limited
to the highest elevations, will not issue an advisory for now.
Temperatures across the mountains will be quite cold, so have issued
a freeze warning for the locations where the growing season has been
turned on and most of the county will be below freezing. Outside of
the mountains breezy and clearing conditions develop with lows a
little below normal.

NW flow snow showers taper off Monday but will linger across the
higher elevations through the day. Windy conditions continue across
the mountains with breezy conditions elsewhere. Skies will generally
be mostly sunny outside of the NW flow areas. However, some of the
mountain wave clouds could break containment and spread east across
the foothills and piedmont. Highs will be around 20 degrees below
normal across the mountains and around 15 degrees below normal
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday: The upper flow atop the SE Conus will continue
deamplify through Tuesday and rising heights will aid in boosting
max temperatures back to near climo levels under abundant sunshine
after a rather chilly early morning. The WSW flow through a deeper
layer should increase on Wednesday, well downstream of the eastward
rippling mid-Conus/Ohio Valley s/wv energy. For the cwfa, under a
mix of sun and clouds, downslope aided warming is expected to boost
piedmont maximums to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday: At the start of the period, an eastern Conus
broad trough will be in place as energy rotates through the l/wv,
well north of the region.  This should be able to drag a moisture
starved cold front across the cwfa on Thursday with little to no
shower probabilities.  The upper pattern does remain progressive, so
by the end of the work week, the pattern will be deamplifying once
again, featuring rising heights atop the region. The flow around sfc
hipres centered over the Great Lakes will result in an easterly llvl
flow, hence, maxes should top out near if not below the mid-April
climo.  The medium models look to be in decent agreement for next
weekend featuring building deep layer ridging atop the region on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect lingering MVFR cigs to give way to VFR
conditions by 11 or 12z at all sites. Currently, the only exception
is KHKY which has been reporting IFR cigs for the past few hours.
Otherwise, some patchy fog could develop thru mid-morning, however
robust winds should keep it to a minimum. For later today, mid to
high level clouds are expected across the region, becoming SCT/BKN
at times. Gusty WLY to SWLY winds will prevail thru the taf period
with KAVL seeing more of a NWLY direction. Gusts in the 18 to 25 kt
range are expected thru the period.

Outlook: Other than perhaps some lingering mountain showers, dry and
cooler conditions will continue into mid week. A dry cold front will
arrive from the west on Thursday, with some restrictions possible.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   71%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  87%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT/SGL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT



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