Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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FXPQ50 PGUM 100747
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
547 PM ChST Mon Aug 10 2020

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and gentle to moderate
trade winds prevail across the region this afternoon. A few
thunderstorms are seen over the far western Guam coastal waters.
Buoys show seas between 3 and 4 feet, while altimetry shows near 5
feet to the east.

&&

.Discussion...
After scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over the
region early this afternoon, a drier trade-wind pattern is now moving
in over the islands. Weak instability due to an upper-level low and
associated trough will maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms over
the area through Tuesday night. By Wednesday, fairly light easterly
winds over Guam along with increasing moisture will result in island
effect showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Winds will
increase slightly Thursday before decreasing to light across all the
islands for Friday on through the weekend. This will result in a
chance of island effect showers and thunderstorms over all the
Marianas during the afternoons from Friday on through the weekend.
Otherwise, no large scale organized system is expected to affect the
region through at least Sunday.

&&

.Marine...
Buoys combined with altimetry data indicate seas of 3 to 5 feet
remain over the waters this afternoon. Seas will gradually subside
over the next couple of days, reaching 2 to 3 feet by Thursday. This
will allow the rip current risk to fall to low.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A broken band of cloudiness with areas of showers and thunderstorms
stretches eastward from Pohnpei to the date line, the product of low-
level convergence between east winds along 8-10N and southeast winds
south of 8N. Over the next five days, models weaken the convergence
until by the weekend only isolated showers are expected. For
tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger for Pohnpei
and Majuro, but Kosrae will be south of the main action, and only
isolated showers are expected. After a break on Tuesday, scattered
showers return to Majuro Wed-Thu, to Kosrae for Wednesday and Wed
night, and to Pohnpei for Thursday and Friday. Combined seas will be
5 feet or less at all three locations.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Satellite imagery shows a weak disturbance centered SW of Chuuk, and
this should bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to
Chuuk tonight before the disturbance heads out to the west. Koror
and Yap are in a relatively dry pattern of light east to northeast
trades tonight, and only isolated showers are seen through Tuesday
night. But by Wednesday, the disturbance traveling west from Chuuk
will move into Yap and Palau with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms through Thursday. By the weekend, quiet weather and
light winds are expected at all three locations. Combined seas will
remain at 4 feet or less through Saturday.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Kleeschulte/Middlebrooke



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