576
FXPQ50 PGUM 231803
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
403 AM ChST Mon Mar 24 2025

.Marianas Update...
Overall, no changes were made to the forecast. Latest satellite
trends show only a few clouds across the Marianas. Dry conditions are
expected today with light showers possible late this evening and
tonight.

Combined seas have fallen to the 5 to 7 foot range this morning. A
slight bump up back to 6 to 8 foot seas will be possible tonight.
Combined seas look to diminish once again during the latter half of
the week. There will be a moderate risk for rip currents along north
and east facing reefs through at least the middle of the week.

&&

.Tropical Update...
A newly-formed weak tropical disturbance, now known as JTWC`s Invest
96W, is centered west-southwest of Palau near 5N132E. Very little
development is expected with 96W as it meanders and remains largely
disorganized in nature around the current location. Convection is
expected to increase today, bringing most of this convective activity
to much of western Micronesia, including Palau and Yap. Even so, 96W
is not likely to develop into a significant tropical cyclone over
the next 24 hours as it begins its slow trek toward the Philippines,
but it will be monitored closely by various agencies over the next
few days.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia Update...
Only minor edits to the forecast this morning. The dry trade-wind
pattern is coming to an end as a zone of trade convergence develops
over the region the next few days. Have sped up slightly the onset of
scattered showers for Kosrae to later this afternoon, and for
Pohnpei and Majuro to later tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase through the week, especially late week as a trade-wind
trough interacts with the convergence zone.

Elevated seas of 7 to 9 feet will slowly diminish over the coming
days, becoming 4 to 6 by late week. Expect moderate to at times fresh
trade wind for the period. The High Surf Advisory continues through
this afternoon for east facing reefs of Kosrae and may need to be
extended.

&&

.Western Micronesia Update...
Only minor edits to the forecast this morning. The circulation
within the near-equatorial trough (NET), JTWC Invest 96W, is located
west-southwest of Palau, near 5N132E. The NET and 96W will creep
north and interact with a trade disturbance approaching Yap and Palau
from the east. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with locally heavy showers, expected through at least
Tuesday. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Yap and
Palau. Drier weather expected beginning Wednesday as the NET and
Invest 96W weaken. Isolated trade showers expected for Yap, but Palau
may stay low-end scattered with isolated thunderstorms due to a
higher moisture profile and a bit of convergent flow remaining
nearby. Relatively quiet conditions persists for Chuuk through at
least Tuesday, then a band of trade-wind convergence builds in from
eastern Micronesia around midweek, bringing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at times.

Combined seas 4 to 6 feet for Palau and 5 to 7 feet for Yap and
Chuuk are expected to decrease by 1 to 2 feet beginning midweek in
response to slight decreases in trade and northerly swells, becoming
3 to 4 feet for Palau and Yap and 4 to 6 feet for Chuuk. Winds will
generally be gentle to moderate for Palau. For Yap, winds moderate
to fresh today through Tuesday, then gentle to moderate beginning
around midweek. Gusts of 20 to 30 kt and choppy seas possible near
heavier showers in Palau`s and especially Yap`s coastal waters. For
Chuuk, moderate to at times fresh winds for most of the week.

&&

.Prev discussion... /issued 541 PM ChST Sun Mar 23 2025/

Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle to moderate trades bring isolated showers to the region, as
indicated by Satellite imagery and Doppler Radar. The buoys indicate
seas are 5 to 6 feet.

Discussion...
A passing trough may bring isolated showers to the region in the
early evening, followed by a brief period of mostly clear skies.
After, isolated trade showers are expected for much of the week.

Marine...
Combined seas of 6 to 7 feet will persist through Monday night,
potentially increasing another foot Tuesday before diminishing once
again in the second half of the week. As such, surf will peak
Tuesday before tapering down along all reefs slightly thereafter.
A moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north and east
facing reefs for much of the week.

Tropical systems...
A newly-forming weak tropical disturbance, now known as JTWC`s
Invest 96W, is centered west-southwest of Palau near 5N129E. Very
little development is expected with 96W as it meanders and remains
largely disorganized in nature around the current location.
Convection is expected to increase over the coming days, bringing
most of this convective activity to much of western Micronesia,
including Palau and potentially Yap. Even so, the feature is not
likely to develop into a significant tropical cyclone over the next
24 hours as it begins its slow trek toward the Philippines. Even so,
96W will be monitored closely by various agencies over the next few
days.

Eastern Micronesia...
The dry trade-wind pattern looks to be coming to an end. Dry
conditions will continue for Kosrae through Monday, and at Pohnpei
and Majuro through Monday night. A band of convergence looks more
likely to develop across the region, affecting Kosrae first Monday
night. The band will initially be far enough south for the dry
pattern to continue a little longer at Pohnpei and Majuro, but looks
to drift far enough north to increase convection over both locations
Tuesday morning. Later in the week, a trade-wind trough, currently
east of the Date Line, will move into eastern Micronesia, interacting
with the convergence to increase convection over the region.
Maintained POPs (Probability of Precipitation) between 30 and 50
percent, however, POPs could move into the 60 to 70 percent range
later in the week, depending on the strength of the convergence. A
dry pattern begins to reestablish across the Marshalls at the end of
the week, reaching Kosrae late in the weekend.

A short-lived burst in trade swell brought seas to around 10 feet at
Pohnpei. This resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued for
Pohnpei overnight. Swell has quickly subsided and seas are now 9 feet
or less across the region. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was
allowed to expire. Seas look to gradually subside through the week,
dropping to between 4 and 6 feet for the weekend.

Western Micronesia...
A weak tropical disturbance, JTWC Invest 96W, is located west-
southwest of Palau, near 5N129E. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued for Yap and Palau due to the unsettled weather pattern that
is expected to take shape in the next few days. An ASCAT pass over
96W shows westerly flow to its south, helping usher in deep tropical
moisture into the region. Palau is currently experiencing some
showers from trade-wind convergence east of 96W, but a broad surface
trough will begin to interact with a developing Near-Equatorial
Trough (NET), allowing conditions to deteriorate as early as Monday
for Yap and further deteriorate for Palau Monday night. Through
at least Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected, with locally heavy showers possible.
Model guidance shows the potential for gusts to 30 mph near heavier
showers; this is mainly for Yap, but convectively-driven gusts cannot
be ruled out for showers developing near Palau as well. 96W is
expected to slowly meander north-northwestward. By Tuesday night,
96W and the NET begins to weaken and overall weather for Yap and
Palau gradually improves. Relatively quiet conditions persists for
Chuuk through Tuesday night, then a band of trade-wind convergence
builds in from eastern Micronesia around midweek. Latest model
guidance shows the bulk of convection to be south of the forecast
locations, although trade-wind troughs may shift convection north
over Palau and Chuuk.

Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet persist for Yap and Palau and an
altimetry pass west of Chuuk Lagoon show seas 6 to 8 feet. Seas are
expected to decrease by one to two feet starting around midweek in
response to slight decreases in easterly trade swell and background
northerly swell. Winds will generally be light to moderate for Palau
and gentle to moderate across Yap, with winds increasing to moderate
to fresh Monday through Tuesday at Yap. Gusts may occasionally reach
up to 30 knots for Yap Monday through Tuesday with heavier showers.
For Chuuk, winds remain moderate to fresh over the next several days.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Williams
East/West Micronesia: Slagle