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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
981
FXUS61 KGYX 191300
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
900 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes to our south today bringing some light rain
and snow, especially across southern NH and coastal ME. Things
are looking up however as high pressure finally builds into New
England over the weekend into early next week. After that the
next chance of precipitation occurs next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9am update... a bit of snow mixing in across southern NH in the
heaviest precipitation as the low passes to the south. Don`t
expect snow to last long with the low moving out but have added
in snow or rain wording for next few hours.

645 AM Update...Forecast is going as planned as compared to
radar imagery with the bulk of the light precipitation remaining
south of the NH/MA border. This should continue to be the case
for the most part, although some light snow and rain will
likely fall north of the border over the next few hours. If the
precip measures, it will be very light.

Previously...

SFC low pressure will pass well to our south today in
association with a southern stream short wave trough.
Deterministic models as well as ensembles have trended south
with this feature which also means best forcing for ascent and
associated precipitation shield has also trended south. Have
therefore scaled back on precip amounts today as well as
snowfall across the higher terrain of southern NH. There may
still be a period of light precipitation across southernmost NH
and southernmost ME this morning, but the expected light
intensity of precipitation doesn`t portend to accumulating
snowfall. At most, we expect up to an inch of snow in the
highest elevations of the Monadnocks. In fact, a few mesoscale
models keep any meaningful precipitation south of the NH/MA
border, and that is a possibility as well.

During the late morning and afternoon hours the northern stream
closed low will move overhead. This is probably when most
locations in the CWA have a chance to get wet, as instability
showers are a good possibility. Therefore, the highest PoPs have
been placed this afternoon. High temperatures are expected to
generally be in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NOrthwesterly flow and downsloping will be the rule tonight.
This will mean clearing on the coastal plain with a good chance
of upslope snow showers and plenty of clouds in the mountains.
The same can be said for Friday, although clouds will likely
fill in as cold cyclonic flow continues aloft aiding in
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The deterministic model solutions remain in decent agreement on
the long wave pattern through the middle of next week. We begin
the period with an upper low centered to our northeast near
Newfoundland. This upper low will maintain the cool cyclonic flow
across the area for the start of the upcoming weekend. Clouds will
linger Saturday across the higher terrain as well as our northern
and eastern Maine zones with widely scattered showers confined to
the higher terrain. Things then improve markedly for the second
half of the weekend. On Sunday...ridging and rising heights will
arrive with fair weather and a noticeable warming trend expected through
the first half of the new work week. Over the past several
runs...models have trended towards a slower and less progressive
system for the second half of the work week as phasing occurs
between northern and southern stream energy. This will result in
several days of cooler and damper weather to wind out the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected today, although
areas of MVFR conds are likely in showers from time to time. VFR
conditions are expected today and Friday except for MVFR
conditions in snow showers in the mountains.

Long Term...

Sat...Sct MVFR in mtn -shra/-shsn.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions are possible later tonight into
Friday as northwesterly winds kick in behind departing low
pressure.

Long Term...

Sat...SCA`s are psb...especially outside the bays.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Schwibs
AVIATION...
MARINE...