Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271148 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 648 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low level pressure will keep skies mainly cloudy through Tuesday with snow showers possible in the mountains. Temperatures today will however boost up into the 40s along the coastal plain. Fair weather is then expected mid to late week. The weekend may be fair also, but there is a chance that low pressure may affect the region later in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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647 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Plenty of clouds remain along with sct flurries. Just a few minor adjustments to the forecast based on latest trends in observational data. Previously... A short wave trough will pass across the region today keeping skies mostly cloudy. Snow showers are expected in the mountains, with perhaps even a period of snow showers east and south of the mountains this morning when forcing for ascent maximizes. As for temperatures, we`ll be able normal today with most locations reaching the 40s this afternoon despite the expected cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... While the main short wave trough moves off to the east tonight and Tuesday, broad and moist cyclonic flow will persist over New England, allowing for clouds to persist. However, there should be more breaks of sunshine on Tuesday as compared to today. The biggest difference will be temperatures, with highs on Tuesday averaging a good 5 to 8 degrees below today`s values. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quiet weather will continue through the end of the week as a split flow regime develops over the CONUS. Under this regime southern stream energy will pass well to our south with high pressure building into the Northeast. High temperatures will be around seasonal averages mid week warming to above average by the end of the week as high pressure shifts to our east. With high pressure building overhead Wednesday night through Thursday night have incorporated MOS guidance for low temperatures as these will be good nights for radiational cooling. The split flow pattern starts to break down at the end of the week as 500 mb heights start to build into the western US. This will aid in the development of a trough downstream over the eastern US. For the past several model runs deterministic guidance has been showing short wave energy dropping out of Canada into the Great Lakes and possibly interacting with southern stream energy over Texas going into the weekend. Models continue to vary amongst themselves and from run to run whether these two disturbances can phase, which would lead to storm over the Northeast towards the end of the weekend. The 27.00Z guidance still show this possibility although global models are now leaning toward the phasing of these systems well to our east. These solutions suggest the developing system will only provide a glancing blow, although the situation bears watching as some ensemble means place the low closer to the coast. Since the possibility of this system comes at the end of the forecast period have gone with chance PoPs Saturday night into Sunday. Overall expect quiet weather this week to transition to more active weather late this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at lower elevations although still bkn below 060. MVFR conditions are expected in the mountains during that time with ocnl snow showers. VFR conditions should dominate on Tuesday with relatively light winds. Long Term...Quiet conditions are expected through the end of the week with high pressure building into the Northeast. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA remains in effect on the outer waters through this afternoon mainly for hazardous seas which will take some time to diminish. A few gusts around 25 kt are possible but not expected to be frequent. Long Term...Quiet conditions over the waters are expected through Friday. A coastal system will possibly develop over the East Coast Saturday and track northeastward bringing elevated seas Saturday night into Sunday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$

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