Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261410 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1010 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains largely in control over northern New England through the end of week. This will bring fair and dry conditions, with light winds. Cool nights are expected with some scattered frost possible in the far north tonight. Temperatures moderate through the week limiting the chances for frost after tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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10 AM Update...No changes to the going forecast at this time. Sunny skies are expected most areas today with temperatures warming into the 60s. Across southern NH, clouds will gradually decrease in coverage. 655 AM Update...Minor tweaks to T/Tds to capture the latest observed trends. Previously... High pressure continues to build from the north today and will become centered over northern New England by tonight. Steady NE winds will prevail along the coastal plain with some gusts up to 20 mph along the NH Seacoast and coastal SW Maine. Otherwise, expect fair skies with highs in 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be centered close to overhead tonight setting up efficient radiational cooling. This will bring lows into the upper 30s to low 40s across the area with favorable radiational cooling spots approaching the mid to low 30s. The question mark for tonight revolves around fog versus frost as dewpoints look to remain just above freezing in the coldest spots. Have continued with the mention of frost in far northern zones, mainly Coos County, but have held off on a Frost Advisory as there remains the possibility that fog formation will keep surfaces from reaching the frost point. Moderating temperatures and fair skies are forecast for Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s with light winds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A slow moving ridge of high pressure crosses the forecast area Wednesday night to start out the long term portion of the forecast. Mainly clear skies will remain in place and with light winds and a dry atmosphere, some radiational cooling will take place with overnight lows in the 40s. Some patchy fog will redevelop, mostly over interior valley locations. High pressure will remain in place across the Northeast for Thursday before a trough of low pressure approaches from the west Thursday night. This weak system will allow for some increase in cloud cover which will last through Friday and Friday night. 00Z operational models and ensemble solutions suggest most if any precipitation should be shunted off to the south Friday night and into the upcoming weekend. However, some light shower activity may reach far southern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...MVFR cigs may impinge upon southern TAF sites at times through mid morning and fog remains possible at KLEB and KHIE during the pre-dawn hours. VFR prevails today with lighter NE winds. Valley fog will likely form tonight with the greatest chances for IFR/LIFR to occur at KLEB and KHIE for a few hours before sunrise. VFR will again prevail Wednesday. Long Term...Aviation weather impacts will be limited for this period with high pressure in control. The only issue will be early morning valley fog formation that could bring a few hours of LIFR conditions to some TAF locations, mainly HIE and LEB. && .MARINE... Short Term...NE winds and seas around 5 feet will continue SCA conditions through this morning. Winds subside late this morning followed by subsiding seas north to south this afternoon. Conditions remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Wednesday. Long Term...The next chance of marginal SCA conditions may arrive late this weekend as some swells make their way into the Gulf of Maine. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION... MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.