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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 312259 AAA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
659 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will continue tonight and into Wednesday. A large
maritime low will bring breezy conditions and some rain to the
area Wednesday night into Thursday night. High pressure builds
in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will be losing its grip over the area tonight as
low pressure aloft rotates spokes of energy around the
northeast. We will see increasing cloud cover, with stratus
arriving overnight and sticking around through Wednesday. For
tonight, mostly clear skies initially will allow temps to drop
quickly, especially where dew points are in the teens and 20s.
Northeasterly flow at the surface will drag moisture and cloud
cover in on the northern side of surface low pressure to our
south, as well as WAA towards morning. Have adjusted the
temperature curve overnight to reflect this. Overnight lows will
be in the lower 20s to lower 30s in general.


Previous discussion...
Surface low pressure has pulled well into the Atlantic bringing
much of the cloud cover with it. Skies will be partly to mostly
clear this evening into the tonight. The upper level pattern
will continue to be blocked with an upper level low wobbling
overhead. A secondary surface low moving off the Carolina coast
will get hung up in this blocked pattern allowing for moisture
to be drawn northwards into our area for increasing clouds late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will be near to
slightly above normal tonight ranging from the 20s in the north
to near 30 across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be slightly warmer than today and mostly cloudy
with the upper level low still overhead and moisture being drawn
northwestward from the Atlantic. By Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night there will be enough lift rotating around the
upper low for precipitation to break from east to west. The best
chance for precipitation will come after midnight with mainly
rain outside the mountains. In the mountains precipitation will
be a mix of snow and sleet with little accumulation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended portion of the forecast will start out unsettled,
rainy, and chilly as a large, stacked low pressure system south
of Nova Scotia retrogrades. Various members of the 12z model
suite agree that a substantial area of SYNOPSIS...forcing for
ascent will rotate around the main low center bringing rain to
the region on Thursday. Some areas across the far interior may
see a brief period of sleet or even a few pockets of freezing
rain but the vast majority of the forecast area will see rain
from wire to wire as "warmer" maritime air moves in from the
east. In addition, the pressure gradient tightens pretty
substantially on the coastal plain which should aid in a period
of 30-35 MPH wind gusts Thursday afternoon into Friday. So there
will be a wind chill along with the rain through Thursday
night.

The low eventually moves well south of our latitude Friday and
the rain likely ends for most locations early Friday. However,
some light rain may linger in the south into the early
afternoon hours. High pressure builds in for Saturday and Sunday
with calmer and fair conditions. A weak from may move through
Sunday with a chance of some light showers in the afternoon and
at night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Increasing clouds and lowering cigs move
into the area from east to west Wednesday from an ocean system
leading to mainly MVFR conditions except at KLEB and KHIE where
IFR should prevail into Wednesday evening.

Long Term...Precipitation backs in from the east due to a
retrograding storm out over the open Atlantic Thursday. Expect
lowering ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR range during
the day Thursday and through Thursday night with local IFR
conditions likely at times in rain. Improving conditions are
foreseen for Friday and Saturday. Northerly wind gusts may
exceed 30kt at coastal terminals late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Wind gusts should remain below 25 kts tonight with
SCA seas subsiding below 5 ft by 01Z tonight as one ocean system
pulls well into the Atlantic. Another ocean storm will bring
likely SCA conditions by Wednesday night.

Long Term...A large and intense low pressure system will move to
a position just south of Nova Scotia Thursday before moving back
south Friday. This will allow for increasing winds and seas
Thursday through Friday, with gales on the outer waters likely
in addition to seas peaking 10-15 feet on Friday. Conditions
gradually subside Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides remain astronomically low early this week, but gradually
increase in magnitude by late in the week and over the weekend.
A large, intense and retrograding storm over the open Atlantic
will allow for a building swell by late in the week and early in
the weekend as the storm exits out to sea. Therefore, some
splash-over is possible as we head into Friday and Saturday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The last GYX upper air observation was March 25 at 12Z.
Unfortunately, a disruption in gas supply has temporarily
halted observations from GYX. It`s unknown when supplies will be
restored and upper air observations resumed.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Ekster