Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251350 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 950 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across region through the first half of the week. This will provide dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures. A series of frontal systems will cross the region beginning mid week providing several chances for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 945 AM Update... An area of stratocumulus was drifting across southern NH this morning and will gradually lift and shift south leaving skies sunny across most of northern New England. Otherwise temperatures should warm up into the upper 60s/lower 70s in a dry airmass. Made a few changes to adjust trends for this update. 600 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a sprawling 1029 millibar high covered the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. GOES water vapor imagery showed a developing upper low vicinity of the mid Atlantic coast. GOES infrared showed some patchy low cloud mainly over southern and western sections of the forecast area. Where skies are currently clear the light winds should allow areas of valley stratus and fog to develop through dawn. For today...the high remains anchored to our north with the onshore flow to continue. Expect a few fair weather clouds to develop across the interior...especially over southern sections that will be closest to the developing upper low. Highs today will be in the lower and mid 70s...with a few upper 60s along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... For tonight and Monday...the upper low meanders north and east across the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile...the surface high is anchored to our north with the onshore flow to continue. Expect mainly clear skies and cool temperatures tonight with valley stratus and fog likely towards dawn once again. Lows will be mainly in the 40s...with a few 50 degree readings in urban centers. Mostly sunny and cool Monday with high temperatures similar to today. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly fair weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday with high pressure in place. However, increasing low level moisture and developing onshore flow may allow for some stratus to invade the coastline. Otherwise, a short wave trough approaching from the west on Wednesday will aid in pushing a SFC cold front eastward and increasing our chances for showers later Wednesday and Thursday. There is some potential that moisture from well- offshore tropical low pressure could get entrained into the frontal boundary across ME and NH Wednesday night and Thursday if the approaching short wave trough is amplified enough. This could lead to a period of heavy rain. However at this time it`s too early too tell how the two systems will interact, if at all. Thereafter, Friday and Saturday, generally benign weather is expected aside from a few showers with another approaching front. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through Monday/...VFR. Lcl IFR btw 08 and 12z vcnty of KLEB and KHIE in stratus and fog this morning and Monday morning. Long Term...Mainly VFR Monday night through Wednesday. However, increasing low level moisture and winds potentially turning onshore may mean increased chances for low stratus and fog along the coastal plain Tuesday night and again Wednesday night. In addition, showers and possible thunder may lower conditions Wednesday night into Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Monday/...Onshore flow continues through Monday with gradually building seas. Winds should stay below 25 kt but seas may reach 5 ft by Monday for the open waters south of Casco Bay as the NE flow continues. Long Term...A few 5 footers may be present on the ocean waters Monday night before subsiding Tuesday. Offshore tropical low pressure could bring higher swells once again Thu and Fri. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Ekster

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