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000
FXUS61 KGYX 111711
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1211 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest across the area today before sliding
offshore. A weak disturbance will cross the area tonight and
early Wednesday accompanied by clouds and scattered mainly
mountain snow showers. High pressure then builds across the area
late Wednesday through Friday. Low pressure passes to our south
Saturday,, and could bring some light rain to southern areas,
with snow or rain showers in the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
noon update... Quiet day across the area although the lower
clouds are hanging on over the midcoast.

9am update... Just minor changes mostly in cloud cover where a
few clouds are still present across the area.

550 AM...For this ESTF update I made adjustments to near term
grids to reflect the current mesonet as well as low cloud
developing over extreme southeast New Hampshire and southwest
Maine.

Prev disc...
At 07z...a 1024 millibar high was centered over northern New
England. GOES infrared imagery showed clear skies at moment
across the forecast area under the building surface high. The
clear skies, light winds, and dry atmosphere were allowing
temperatures to tumble across the area. Subzero readings were
commonplace for the mountains with single numbers and lower
teens above zero elsewhere. Upstream of New England...GOES
water vapor imagery showed a strong shortwave and associated
1010 millibar surface low over the upper Great Lakes. For
today...the high will crest across the area this morning before
retreating offshore. A sunny but cold start with temperatures
rebounding to the 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Clouds will
arrive late today across northern and western areas ahead of
the Great Lakes disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The shortwave and weak surface low cross the region tonight
accompanied by a band of clouds. The system is moisture starved
and any snow shower activity and light accumulations should be
confined to the higher terrain with its passage. One caveat is
the available short range model suite points to a weak surface
low and trough forming somewhere near the Maine mid coast
region early tonight. This weak feature could produce a few
snow showers and light accumulation along the immediate Maine mid
coast and islands overnight. By Wednesday...any lingering
clouds quickly exit the region as high pressure builds in from
the north and west. Highs will be in the 20s and lower 30s...but
a gusty northwest wind will make it feel a good 5 to 10 degrees
colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
I don`t have a lot of confidence in the long range models,
beyond Friday at least, as they will be dealing with several
weak closed systems at 500 MB that become separated from the
stronger nrn stream flow. Still, the overall trend across NOAM
of the coldest receding toward the Arctic and Siberia still
holds, which will mean a warming trend for the most part
beginning Friday and possibly extending into at least early next
week. While we may not get significantly above normal, it does
look like we stay normal to above thru this period.

Still, we start off cold Wed night. Should see good rad cooling
especially in inland valleys, although there may be enough N
flow to prevent full scale rad cooling closer to the coast. Lows
will like range from -10 to zero in the mtns, single digits
most other inland areas, to around 10 above near the coast and
in urban areas of srn NH. Thu should be our last below normal
day day for a while, with mainly sunny skies. Light winds will
prevent much mixing however and highs will range from the mid
20s to low 30s N-S.

Will likely see some mid to high clouds move in for Thu night as
WAA begins aloft, and lows will generally be in the 10-20
range. The flow shifts to SW on Friday and will like see a lot
of cirrus, but not enough to block the sun completely, so
p/sunny sounds good. Highs will range from the mid 30s N to low
40s in the S.

By FRiday night, will see 500 MB closed low over the deep south,
with a deepening trough trough in the nrn stream diving SE
across the great lakes. The interaction of these two system
will determine whether we get precip and how much. The 00Z op
GFS soln of bringing the closed low poleward to our west and
then having sit over the NE CONUS seems to favor the closed low
a little too much as the dominant system, given the strong nrn
stream flow, so leaning toward the 00Z Euro at this point,
which does not phase with closed low, but give it a little tug
northward and elongates a bit. This should be enough to pull
some warmth and moisture northward and allow for some mid lvl
interaction between the systems, produce some light precip late
Fri night into Saturday. Mostly this will be rain in srn NH and
along the ME coast, but could start as a bit snow further
inland, although there should be enough warm air that it turns
to rain in all but the far nrn zones. But, here, the QPF is
lowers, and precip may only amt to a few showers. Highs Sat will
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s N to S.

Leaning toward the Euro for the rest of the forecast, which will
move precip out by Sat night, with fair conds Sun-Mon and highs
in the low 30s to low 40s, which is normal or slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...Mainly VFR. Sct MVFR between
04 and 10z Wed in mtn -shsn. Lcl MVFR possible Between 02z and
08z Wed vcnty of KRKD in -shsn. Gusty northerly sfc wind to 25
kt developing during the day Wed.


Long Term...VFR Wed night through Fri. Some flight restrictions
expected late Fri night into Sat in low clouds and light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...Quiet into tonight under high
pressure with winds and seas below SCA thresholds. Gusty NW
winds develop Wednesday as an ocean low passes well to our east.
SCA wind gusts and seas are likely to develop outside the bays
at that time.

Long Term...Wind diminish Wed evening, and should stay below
SCA levels through Sat, although SCA, and possibly gales may be
needed Sat night or Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...