Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 312259 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 659 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will continue tonight and into Wednesday. A large maritime low will bring breezy conditions and some rain to the area Wednesday night into Thursday night. High pressure builds in for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... High pressure will be losing its grip over the area tonight as low pressure aloft rotates spokes of energy around the northeast. We will see increasing cloud cover, with stratus arriving overnight and sticking around through Wednesday. For tonight, mostly clear skies initially will allow temps to drop quickly, especially where dew points are in the teens and 20s. Northeasterly flow at the surface will drag moisture and cloud cover in on the northern side of surface low pressure to our south, as well as WAA towards morning. Have adjusted the temperature curve overnight to reflect this. Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s in general. Previous discussion... Surface low pressure has pulled well into the Atlantic bringing much of the cloud cover with it. Skies will be partly to mostly clear this evening into the tonight. The upper level pattern will continue to be blocked with an upper level low wobbling overhead. A secondary surface low moving off the Carolina coast will get hung up in this blocked pattern allowing for moisture to be drawn northwards into our area for increasing clouds late tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will be near to slightly above normal tonight ranging from the 20s in the north to near 30 across southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday will be slightly warmer than today and mostly cloudy with the upper level low still overhead and moisture being drawn northwestward from the Atlantic. By Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night there will be enough lift rotating around the upper low for precipitation to break from east to west. The best chance for precipitation will come after midnight with mainly rain outside the mountains. In the mountains precipitation will be a mix of snow and sleet with little accumulation expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended portion of the forecast will start out unsettled, rainy, and chilly as a large, stacked low pressure system south of Nova Scotia retrogrades. Various members of the 12z model suite agree that a substantial area of SYNOPSIS...forcing for ascent will rotate around the main low center bringing rain to the region on Thursday. Some areas across the far interior may see a brief period of sleet or even a few pockets of freezing rain but the vast majority of the forecast area will see rain from wire to wire as "warmer" maritime air moves in from the east. In addition, the pressure gradient tightens pretty substantially on the coastal plain which should aid in a period of 30-35 MPH wind gusts Thursday afternoon into Friday. So there will be a wind chill along with the rain through Thursday night. The low eventually moves well south of our latitude Friday and the rain likely ends for most locations early Friday. However, some light rain may linger in the south into the early afternoon hours. High pressure builds in for Saturday and Sunday with calmer and fair conditions. A weak from may move through Sunday with a chance of some light showers in the afternoon and at night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected tonight into early Wednesday morning. Increasing clouds and lowering cigs move into the area from east to west Wednesday from an ocean system leading to mainly MVFR conditions except at KLEB and KHIE where IFR should prevail into Wednesday evening. Long Term...Precipitation backs in from the east due to a retrograding storm out over the open Atlantic Thursday. Expect lowering ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR range during the day Thursday and through Thursday night with local IFR conditions likely at times in rain. Improving conditions are foreseen for Friday and Saturday. Northerly wind gusts may exceed 30kt at coastal terminals late Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Wind gusts should remain below 25 kts tonight with SCA seas subsiding below 5 ft by 01Z tonight as one ocean system pulls well into the Atlantic. Another ocean storm will bring likely SCA conditions by Wednesday night. Long Term...A large and intense low pressure system will move to a position just south of Nova Scotia Thursday before moving back south Friday. This will allow for increasing winds and seas Thursday through Friday, with gales on the outer waters likely in addition to seas peaking 10-15 feet on Friday. Conditions gradually subside Friday night and Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides remain astronomically low early this week, but gradually increase in magnitude by late in the week and over the weekend. A large, intense and retrograding storm over the open Atlantic will allow for a building swell by late in the week and early in the weekend as the storm exits out to sea. Therefore, some splash-over is possible as we head into Friday and Saturday. && .EQUIPMENT... The last GYX upper air observation was March 25 at 12Z. Unfortunately, a disruption in gas supply has temporarily halted observations from GYX. It`s unknown when supplies will be restored and upper air observations resumed. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Ekster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.