National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 060132
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
832 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and quiet weather continues through the weekend with a
northwest breeze persisting. High pressure centered to our south
provides a quiet period of weather next week with a significant
warm up on the way. A front approaches with rain showers late in
the week, though it is unclear how organized this will be.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast based on current radar imagery,
webcams and surface observations. Snow showers still showing in
the returns from GYX radar. Have kept elevated pops for the
overnight hours in the mountains for snow showers over the
higher terrain. Minor adjustments made for near term
temperatures and winds which remain gusty over southern sections.

Prev Disc...Upper level low pressure will remain parked over
Labrador through the next day or so keeping cold northwesterly
flow in place across our region. While the prevailing flow
remains northwest, the surface winds will begin to subside
overnight with forecast soundings showing some of the mountain
valley going calm. This should allow for temps to drop a bit
more and have pushed lows just slightly below zero across the
north. Closer to the coast, just a bit of wind will remain with
temperatures holding near 10.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Colder northwesterly flow will continue but as the low slowly
begins to weaken the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat with
winds decreasing from today, holding around 10-15mph with a few
gusts to 20mph. As far as temperatures, we do start to see temps
aloft moderate slightly and with the warm March sun have pushed
highs to the upper end of the ensemble spread. This will bring
the coast to just above freezing by early afternoon.

Tomorrow night, we again will see winds calm allowing
temperatures to drop back down. Upslope mountain regions may
hold onto enough cloud cover to prevent falling below zero, but
it will be a tight race between the clouds and the temperatures.
Once again single digits will cover most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main story for the next work week is a trend toward warm
ridging over the eastern CONUS, extending into New England by
late week. The storm track remains active however as the
northern stream tries to send shortwaves and attendant cold
fronts to reinforce the cooler airmass from the north. Looking
to long range ensemble anomalies however there is strong
consensus that a large-scale, warm/moist airmass wins out
especially during the middle and latter half of the week on deep
southwesterly flow. Likewise AO forecasts trend strongly
positive during this time as cold air becomes bottled up to the
north, allowing warm air to leech northeastward from the Pacific
and eventually the Gulf of Mexico. Looking to medium/long range
models suites... NOAM guidance favors a more bullish intrusion
of anomalous warmth and humidity while the European suite is
more subdued, but still significant. Both show warmth centered
on the Thu into Fri time period before relenting to a northern
stream cold front to some degree late in the week and weekend.
But this looks to be a return to normal conditions rather than
another Arctic outbreak. A sign of the changing seasons?

Day to day details are scant at this stage... generally speaking
northwest flow slackens Sunday into Monday as high pressure
builds into the region. Sunday looks to be the last day of below
normal temperatures under the influence of a cooler, troughy
airmass aloft with highs in the 20s to low-30s under partly
cloudy skies. Upsloping showers come to an end and skies clear
by the start of Monday, which likely sees temperatures close to
normal. Southwest flow increases on the backside of the ridge
axis as it crosses leading to a significant warm up Tuesday
through at least Thursday. A weak wave crosses to the north
Monday night which may give northern zones light showers, but
without much consequence and low QPF potential.

Readings in the 50s to near 60 will be possible through the
middle to end of the week as ridging builds...at least for
places that aren`t subject to cool onshore flow from the Gulf of
Maine which, at this point, is still around 40F. Likewise low
temperatures creep up as well... starting in the single digits
and teens Monday morning and perhaps rising above freezing by
Thursday and Friday. More uncertainty arises late in the week.
Models generally agree that a cold front will approach from the
northwest on Thursday, but disagree on its progress. Have
reintroduced rain shower chances for Thursday with this front,
but sensible weather beyond Thursday will depend on how the
front slows and possibly redevelops over the region in a zonal,
short-wave driven regime.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term... Light upslope snow showers will result in the Canadian
border down to HIE being in and out of MVFR tonight. Elsewhere VFR
with mostly clear skies and calming winds. Tomorrow
Northwesterly flow will continue, but subside compared to today
with winds mainly around 10kts.

Long Term...VFR prevails with light northwest winds Sunday
eventually turning southwest during the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Northwesterly off shore flow continues for the next few
days. Tonight temperatures dropping to around 10 degrees with the
winds will lead to light freezing spray. Winds will decrease
tomorrow and remain below SCA through the weekend as high pressure
builds into the region.

Long Term...Wind gusts may approach 25 kts in offshore flow
with the passage of a couple cold fronts Sunday and again early
Tuesday over the waters with fairly quiet seas AOB 3 ft or so.
Otherwise broad high pressure will settle nearby over the
northwest Atlantic, centered south of the waters, which sets up
a southwest flow for most of next week. Wind gusts approach 25
kts again around Thursday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150>152-
     154.

&&

$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...Cannon