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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 271148
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
648 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low level pressure will keep skies mainly cloudy through
Tuesday with snow showers possible in the mountains.
Temperatures today will however boost up into the 40s along the
coastal plain. Fair weather is then expected mid to late week.
The weekend may be fair also, but there is a chance that low
pressure may affect the region later in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
647 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Plenty of
clouds remain along with sct flurries. Just a few minor
adjustments to the forecast based on latest trends in
observational data.

Previously...

A short wave trough will pass across the region today keeping
skies mostly cloudy. Snow showers are expected in the mountains,
with perhaps even a period of snow showers east and south of the
mountains this morning when forcing for ascent maximizes. As for
temperatures, we`ll be able normal today with most locations
reaching the 40s this afternoon despite the expected cloud
cover.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
While the main short wave trough moves off to the east tonight
and Tuesday, broad and moist cyclonic flow will persist over New
England, allowing for clouds to persist. However, there should
be more breaks of sunshine on Tuesday as compared to today. The
biggest difference will be temperatures, with highs on Tuesday
averaging a good 5 to 8 degrees below today`s values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through the end of the week as a split
flow regime develops over the CONUS.  Under this regime southern
stream energy will pass well to our south with high pressure
building into the Northeast. High temperatures will be around
seasonal averages mid week warming to above average by the end
of the week as high pressure shifts to our east. With high
pressure building overhead Wednesday night through Thursday
night have incorporated MOS guidance for low temperatures as
these will be good nights for radiational cooling.

The split flow pattern starts to break down at the end of the week
as 500 mb heights start to build into the western US.  This will aid
in the development of a trough downstream over the eastern US.
For the past several model runs deterministic guidance has been
showing short wave energy dropping out of Canada into the Great
Lakes and possibly interacting with southern stream energy over
Texas going into the weekend. Models continue to vary amongst
themselves and from run to run whether these two disturbances
can phase, which would lead to storm over the Northeast towards
the end of the weekend. The 27.00Z guidance still show this
possibility although global models are now leaning toward the
phasing of these systems well to our east. These solutions
suggest the developing system will only provide a glancing
blow, although the situation bears watching as some ensemble
means place the low closer to the coast. Since the possibility
of this system comes at the end of the forecast period have gone
with chance PoPs Saturday night into Sunday. Overall expect
quiet weather this week to transition to more active weather
late this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at
lower elevations although still bkn below 060. MVFR conditions
are expected in the mountains during that time with ocnl snow
showers. VFR conditions should dominate on Tuesday with
relatively light winds.

Long Term...Quiet conditions are expected through the end of the
week with high pressure building into the Northeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA remains in effect on the outer waters through
this afternoon mainly for hazardous seas which will take some
time to diminish. A few gusts around 25 kt are possible but not
expected to be frequent.

Long Term...Quiet conditions over the waters are expected
through Friday. A coastal system will possibly develop over the
East Coast Saturday and track northeastward bringing elevated
seas Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$