Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 060132 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 832 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and quiet weather continues through the weekend with a northwest breeze persisting. High pressure centered to our south provides a quiet period of weather next week with a significant warm up on the way. A front approaches with rain showers late in the week, though it is unclear how organized this will be. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Update... Have updated the forecast based on current radar imagery, webcams and surface observations. Snow showers still showing in the returns from GYX radar. Have kept elevated pops for the overnight hours in the mountains for snow showers over the higher terrain. Minor adjustments made for near term temperatures and winds which remain gusty over southern sections. Prev Disc...Upper level low pressure will remain parked over Labrador through the next day or so keeping cold northwesterly flow in place across our region. While the prevailing flow remains northwest, the surface winds will begin to subside overnight with forecast soundings showing some of the mountain valley going calm. This should allow for temps to drop a bit more and have pushed lows just slightly below zero across the north. Closer to the coast, just a bit of wind will remain with temperatures holding near 10. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Colder northwesterly flow will continue but as the low slowly begins to weaken the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat with winds decreasing from today, holding around 10-15mph with a few gusts to 20mph. As far as temperatures, we do start to see temps aloft moderate slightly and with the warm March sun have pushed highs to the upper end of the ensemble spread. This will bring the coast to just above freezing by early afternoon. Tomorrow night, we again will see winds calm allowing temperatures to drop back down. Upslope mountain regions may hold onto enough cloud cover to prevent falling below zero, but it will be a tight race between the clouds and the temperatures. Once again single digits will cover most of the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main story for the next work week is a trend toward warm ridging over the eastern CONUS, extending into New England by late week. The storm track remains active however as the northern stream tries to send shortwaves and attendant cold fronts to reinforce the cooler airmass from the north. Looking to long range ensemble anomalies however there is strong consensus that a large-scale, warm/moist airmass wins out especially during the middle and latter half of the week on deep southwesterly flow. Likewise AO forecasts trend strongly positive during this time as cold air becomes bottled up to the north, allowing warm air to leech northeastward from the Pacific and eventually the Gulf of Mexico. Looking to medium/long range models suites... NOAM guidance favors a more bullish intrusion of anomalous warmth and humidity while the European suite is more subdued, but still significant. Both show warmth centered on the Thu into Fri time period before relenting to a northern stream cold front to some degree late in the week and weekend. But this looks to be a return to normal conditions rather than another Arctic outbreak. A sign of the changing seasons? Day to day details are scant at this stage... generally speaking northwest flow slackens Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Sunday looks to be the last day of below normal temperatures under the influence of a cooler, troughy airmass aloft with highs in the 20s to low-30s under partly cloudy skies. Upsloping showers come to an end and skies clear by the start of Monday, which likely sees temperatures close to normal. Southwest flow increases on the backside of the ridge axis as it crosses leading to a significant warm up Tuesday through at least Thursday. A weak wave crosses to the north Monday night which may give northern zones light showers, but without much consequence and low QPF potential. Readings in the 50s to near 60 will be possible through the middle to end of the week as ridging builds...at least for places that aren`t subject to cool onshore flow from the Gulf of Maine which, at this point, is still around 40F. Likewise low temperatures creep up as well... starting in the single digits and teens Monday morning and perhaps rising above freezing by Thursday and Friday. More uncertainty arises late in the week. Models generally agree that a cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday, but disagree on its progress. Have reintroduced rain shower chances for Thursday with this front, but sensible weather beyond Thursday will depend on how the front slows and possibly redevelops over the region in a zonal, short-wave driven regime. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term... Light upslope snow showers will result in the Canadian border down to HIE being in and out of MVFR tonight. Elsewhere VFR with mostly clear skies and calming winds. Tomorrow Northwesterly flow will continue, but subside compared to today with winds mainly around 10kts. Long Term...VFR prevails with light northwest winds Sunday eventually turning southwest during the work week. && .MARINE... Short Term...Northwesterly off shore flow continues for the next few days. Tonight temperatures dropping to around 10 degrees with the winds will lead to light freezing spray. Winds will decrease tomorrow and remain below SCA through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. Long Term...Wind gusts may approach 25 kts in offshore flow with the passage of a couple cold fronts Sunday and again early Tuesday over the waters with fairly quiet seas AOB 3 ft or so. Otherwise broad high pressure will settle nearby over the northwest Atlantic, centered south of the waters, which sets up a southwest flow for most of next week. Wind gusts approach 25 kts again around Thursday ahead of an approaching front. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150>152- 154. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...Cannon

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