Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 062335
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
535 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

The past three days have all featured high temperatures in the low
80s...and we`re already there today...and we`ll be there again on
Friday (and the next day and the next day)...you get the picture.
Just after we had the coldest January on average since 2018, we`re
already on pace this month for the warmest February on record (for
the City of Houston). We`re only 6 days in so it`s way too early to
call that race, but the fact that it`s obtainable is definitely
noteworthy. As of 2:00 PM: Houston/Hobby has already broken the
record for daily high temperatures and Houston/Bush (City of
Houston), College Station, and Galveston have tied their records.
This can all be attributed to 850mb temperatures at their 99th to
MAX percentiles combined with suitable conditions for boundary layer
mixing. As a result, high temperatures in the low 80s will be common
both today and on Friday. Temperatures overnight won`t be much
better either with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper
60s...this is near or above our normal high temperatures by the way.

With the jet stream staying north of us and zonal flow aloft
persisting, we`re not going to see much change in our weather
pattern over the next few days. This means that our daily bouts with
radiation fog and sea fog will continue with conditions gradually
deteriorating from south to north in the evening hours. Visibilities
are expected to be at their lowest in the early morning hours,
especially for areas along the coast. Rain chances are slim, but not
exactly zero either. There will be some intermittent periods of
favorable positioning of an LLJ combined with daytime heating and
isentropic lift that could generate some spotty light rain showers,
but most will not see anything fall from the sky other than
sunshine. While record high temperatures are certainly possible on
Friday in some spots, they`ll be a bit harder to achieve since most
of them are at least 3-4 degrees higher than the records from today.
Either way, it`s going to feel more like it`s late April/early May
rather than early February for at least a few more days.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

A shallow cold front will be making its way into north Tx during
the day Saturday...probably reaching northern parts of SE Tx
Sunday morning. Considering warm conditions in advance and lack
of upper support, this boundary will likely end up stalling and
meandering north-and-south somewhere between I-10 and the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods Sunday night-Wednesday. The question is where.
So many varying deterministic opinions on this matter at this
time, so will generally go with the blended/NBM solutions right
now. That said, I suspect we might see some healthy forecast
temperature busts near/north of where the front decides to
fluctuate on a daily basis. Initially, anticipate some iso-sct
shra near the front, but chances go up Tue-Wed as a strengthening
llj transports some deeper moisture surges in from the Gulf which
also interact with some impulses embedded in the wsw flow aloft.
Closer to the coast, rain chances will be lower, but we`ll
probably still be intermittently dealing with periods of sea fog.
It appears the front will finally get a southward push and offshore
Thursday, but timing of that is also somewhat uncertain depending
on your model of choice. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place over the next couple of hours
before yet another night of fog development and lowering cigs
bring an extended period of IFR and at times LIFR conditions into
tomorrow morning. Most of the area should see the development of
an IFR deck around the 06Z timeframe. Lowering visibilities should
accompany this as we have seen over the past several days. Dense
fog is possible at times, mainly along the coast. Conditions
should slowly improve with daytime heating, with IFR
cigs/visibilities expected to dissipate between 15-17Z and VFR
conditions remaining in place through early tomorrow evening.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Though water temperatures have risen over the past week, overall
conditions are still favorable for periods of sea fog...maybe just
not as long lasting as the past several days. Would anticipate fog
redevelopment off the coast this evening pushing into the southern
and central bays overnight. It will likely retreat back into the
Gulf during the late morning hours. Same type of scenario is
anticipated into early next week on a daily basis. Mariners should
be prepared for periods of reduced visibility and associated
navigation hazards. Otherwise, light onshore winds and low seas
will prevail into early next week. A weak, nearly stalled front
may meander around the coast Tuesday and Wednesday...finally
getting a much needed push offshore Thursday.  47

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

High Temperature Records for February 6th:

-College Station: 83F (1890) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM]
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 82F (2019) [TIED AS OF 2PM]
-Houston/Hobby: 81F (1969) [RECORD BROKEN AS OF 1PM]
-Palacios: 81F (1951)
-Galveston: 77F (1969) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM]

High Temperature Records for February 7th:

-College Station: 90F (1891)
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 86F (2017)
-Houston/Hobby: 85F (2017)
-Palacios: 80F (1957)
-Galveston: 80F (2017)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  83  68  85 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  68  83  68  83 /  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  64  75  63  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$