


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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909 FXUS64 KHGX 062335 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 535 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 The past three days have all featured high temperatures in the low 80s...and we`re already there today...and we`ll be there again on Friday (and the next day and the next day)...you get the picture. Just after we had the coldest January on average since 2018, we`re already on pace this month for the warmest February on record (for the City of Houston). We`re only 6 days in so it`s way too early to call that race, but the fact that it`s obtainable is definitely noteworthy. As of 2:00 PM: Houston/Hobby has already broken the record for daily high temperatures and Houston/Bush (City of Houston), College Station, and Galveston have tied their records. This can all be attributed to 850mb temperatures at their 99th to MAX percentiles combined with suitable conditions for boundary layer mixing. As a result, high temperatures in the low 80s will be common both today and on Friday. Temperatures overnight won`t be much better either with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 60s...this is near or above our normal high temperatures by the way. With the jet stream staying north of us and zonal flow aloft persisting, we`re not going to see much change in our weather pattern over the next few days. This means that our daily bouts with radiation fog and sea fog will continue with conditions gradually deteriorating from south to north in the evening hours. Visibilities are expected to be at their lowest in the early morning hours, especially for areas along the coast. Rain chances are slim, but not exactly zero either. There will be some intermittent periods of favorable positioning of an LLJ combined with daytime heating and isentropic lift that could generate some spotty light rain showers, but most will not see anything fall from the sky other than sunshine. While record high temperatures are certainly possible on Friday in some spots, they`ll be a bit harder to achieve since most of them are at least 3-4 degrees higher than the records from today. Either way, it`s going to feel more like it`s late April/early May rather than early February for at least a few more days. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 A shallow cold front will be making its way into north Tx during the day Saturday...probably reaching northern parts of SE Tx Sunday morning. Considering warm conditions in advance and lack of upper support, this boundary will likely end up stalling and meandering north-and-south somewhere between I-10 and the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods Sunday night-Wednesday. The question is where. So many varying deterministic opinions on this matter at this time, so will generally go with the blended/NBM solutions right now. That said, I suspect we might see some healthy forecast temperature busts near/north of where the front decides to fluctuate on a daily basis. Initially, anticipate some iso-sct shra near the front, but chances go up Tue-Wed as a strengthening llj transports some deeper moisture surges in from the Gulf which also interact with some impulses embedded in the wsw flow aloft. Closer to the coast, rain chances will be lower, but we`ll probably still be intermittently dealing with periods of sea fog. It appears the front will finally get a southward push and offshore Thursday, but timing of that is also somewhat uncertain depending on your model of choice. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 VFR conditions will remain in place over the next couple of hours before yet another night of fog development and lowering cigs bring an extended period of IFR and at times LIFR conditions into tomorrow morning. Most of the area should see the development of an IFR deck around the 06Z timeframe. Lowering visibilities should accompany this as we have seen over the past several days. Dense fog is possible at times, mainly along the coast. Conditions should slowly improve with daytime heating, with IFR cigs/visibilities expected to dissipate between 15-17Z and VFR conditions remaining in place through early tomorrow evening. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 Though water temperatures have risen over the past week, overall conditions are still favorable for periods of sea fog...maybe just not as long lasting as the past several days. Would anticipate fog redevelopment off the coast this evening pushing into the southern and central bays overnight. It will likely retreat back into the Gulf during the late morning hours. Same type of scenario is anticipated into early next week on a daily basis. Mariners should be prepared for periods of reduced visibility and associated navigation hazards. Otherwise, light onshore winds and low seas will prevail into early next week. A weak, nearly stalled front may meander around the coast Tuesday and Wednesday...finally getting a much needed push offshore Thursday. 47 && .CLIMATE... Issued at 328 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 High Temperature Records for February 6th: -College Station: 83F (1890) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM] -Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 82F (2019) [TIED AS OF 2PM] -Houston/Hobby: 81F (1969) [RECORD BROKEN AS OF 1PM] -Palacios: 81F (1951) -Galveston: 77F (1969) [RECORD TIED AS OF 2PM] High Temperature Records for February 7th: -College Station: 90F (1891) -Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 86F (2017) -Houston/Hobby: 85F (2017) -Palacios: 80F (1957) -Galveston: 80F (2017) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 83 68 85 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 83 68 83 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 75 63 72 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ350-355. && $$