Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230550
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1150 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019


.AVIATION...
Cold front through UTS and nearing CXO. Expect ceilings to lower
to MVFR with VISBY impacted with RA/SHRA could see some brief IFR
conditions with the stronger storms tracking quickly northeastward
along the frontal boundary. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25
gusting to 25 to 35kts. The rains taper off quickly between 07 and
13z from northwest to southeast. Ceilings lifting quickly and will
likely end up with a bkn/ovc 7000-9000ft before clearing
completely in the late morning.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

UPDATE...
Per obs, it looks like the cold front has just moved into College
Station, and on its current rate of speed, this line should be at
IAH around midnight and off the coast around sunrise. In the mean-
while, the radar is really starting to fill both ahead of the pre
frontal trof and the cold front itself. Some lightning also being
detected with the activity along the front. We should continue to
see this development continue overnight and current grids seem to
have things covered. Short-range progs not really offering up too
much change from the previous runs...and will be leaving the fore-
cast as is. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

AVIATION...
Cold front has pushed through Dallas/Brady line as of 00z. Light
sprinkles developing over the northwestern counties at this time
with southerly winds starting to relax and lose the gustiness.
Ceilings VFR across the region.

The cold front should approach the CLL area near 03-04z with light
rain and showers becoming more widespread in the band of lift
ahead of the front. Model soundings showing very limited
instability so can`t rule out a few TSRA but the predominant
weather should -RA/-SHRA. Gusty northwest winds in the wake of the
front 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts. Either side of the front by
an hour before or so and 3-5 after expect MVFR ceilings and
lowered visby with -RA/BR. Skies should start clearing late
morning after mid level deck departs.
45

MARINE...
Have expanded the Gale Warning to include the eastern marine zones
starting at 08z for all Gulf waters. SCA in effect in the mean
time with seas of 7-11 feet already in place with seas becoming
chaotic post frontal passage an building.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      37  48  32  57  34 /  80  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              40  48  32  57  36 / 100  60   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            45  49  41  53  47 /  90  90   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for the
     following zones: Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
     Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Wednesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM CST Wednesday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until noon CST Wednesday for the following zones:
     Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX
     out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel
     TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
     TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45



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