Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 012352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
652 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023

Today is very similar to yesterday, with mid level clouds thinning
out and high based cumulus clouds developing during daytime
heating. Temperatures are now into the upper 70s to middle 80s,
and may touch 90 this afternoon in the metros. Tonight, very
patchy fog is again possible, with a clear or mostly clear sky
expected with lows mostly in the lower 60s, with upper 50s in a
few of the eastern valleys.


(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023

Little if any change in the forecast through Wednesday. The mid
to upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will maintain a
persistence forecast for us locally. The ridge/high shift east
late Tuesday into Wednesday, which will direct a more southerly
and increased wind flow then. But will a dry forecast is foreseen.
There may be some lower Appalachian afternoon cumulus or even a
few showers, but these will likely remain east of our area.
Otherwise, expect highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and lows in
the upper 50 eastern valleys to lower 60s elsewhere. Patchy early
morning fog may remain possible each day.


(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023

The overall wx pattern will begin to change some going past mid
week, as both high pressure at the sfc and the upper ridge axis
translate more into the NE/mid Atlantic Basins. The latter half of
the global models also hint at an upper trough pattern/attendant
cold front traversing eastward thru the OH Valley/SE states from
late Thu into the first half of next weekend. This will result in
a low chc (20-30%) of showers returning to the forecast starting
late Thu and continuing into Sat. Slightly cooler air will also
spread into the SE region in the wake of the frontal passage, as
afternoon temps trend more in the lower/mid 80s Thu/Fri. Highs
may then struggle to climb past the mid 70s on Sat, as lingering
showers exit to the east. Overnight temps will also be on a
cooling trend past mid week, as lows fall more into the lower/mid
50s by early Sat.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2023

Sct high-based Cu (within a prevailing but light low to mid-level
ENE flow regime) may persist for much of the valid TAF period,
but should diminish in coverage during the morning hours on Monday
before expanding once again after 16Z. As winds become calm later
this evening, patchy BR/FG may also develop near large bodies of
water (particularly btwn 8-13Z), and although a brief period of
MVFR vsby reductions could occur at both HSV/MSL right around 12Z,
confidence is not high enough to include this in the official
TAFs attm. Aside from calm flow during the morning hours, sfc
winds will remain from ENE with a sustained speed arnd 5 knots.





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