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000
AXNT20 KNHC 121610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW
Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds across
the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Gale force
winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia tonight through Sun
night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during each night`s late
night/early morning hours.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNING.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N16W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 05N and east of 18W, with another area of
similar convection west of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building in across the basin behind a departed
cold front. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas
prevail behind the front in the eastern Gulf to 90W. Moderate or
weaker NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across
the remainder of the basin west of 90W.

For the forecast, as the front continues moving farther from the
basin, conditions will improve over the eastern basin by this
afternoon. Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in
the evenings through the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through
the upcoming weekend and into next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale
Warning off NW Colombia.

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Showers are likely occurring along the boundary in the
NW Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds are noted behind the front
with slight to moderate seas. The rest of the basin is dominated
by a strong subtropical ridge centered south of Newfoundland. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW
South America is allowing for strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are rough in
these waters. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and moderate seas
are found in the north-central and NE Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the SE
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern
coast of Colombia at night through the weekend. The stationary
front in the NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate through Sat.
Some rough seas are possible near the Yucatan Channel through Sat.
High pressure will build in as the front washes out with moderate
to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across much of the
basin, locally strong near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to just southeast of the Straits
of Florida to central Cuba. Showers are observed ahead of the
front to 70W, north of 25N. Behind the front, moderate to fresh NW
to W winds and moderate seas are present. The remainder of the
tropical western Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical
ridge centered south of Newfoundland. A trough stretches from
31N34W to 16N59W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
surface trough results in fresh to strong NE to E winds north of
the surface trough to 27N and west of 40W to 70W, where winds
become SW to S westward to the aforementioned cold front. Seas are
moderate to rough in these waters.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are
present south of the surface trough and west of 40W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
31N75W to just southeast of the Straits of Florida will reach from
31N68W to central Cuba early Sat while weakening, then from
31N61W to eastern Cuba early Sun where it will stall and gradually
dissipate. Strong to near gale- force winds near the front N of
29N early today will diminish through tonight. Rough seas will
accompany these winds. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front through early next week with more tranquil marine
conditions expected.

$$
Nepaul