National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCAE 161218
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
818 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the southeastern
states during the first part of the week resulting in warm and
dry conditions. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late week. The front may stall near the area late
in the weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is located offshore to our east with a mature mid-
latitude cyclone spinning through the Upper Midwest. Ridge ahead of
this disturbance is inducing northwest flow aloft across the area,
with some passing mainly high level clouds. KCAE VWP indicates a low-
level jet of around 30 kts which may be helping to keep the boundary
layer mixed. Temperatures across the region fairly mild in the low
to mid 60s with the exception of KAGS where the temperature is 55.
Shallow moisture has weakly increased with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s.

For the rest of today, upper heights over the area should increase
slightly with the upper ridge shifting eastward. A weak frontal
boundary to the north is expected to sag south across the northern
Midlands, or just south of the SC/NC border. Additionally, models
depict a mid-level shortwave moving across the area. The airmass
will be slightly unstable heading into this afternoon, especially
along the state line where PW values will increase to around 1.2"-
1.4". As such, we`re anticipating an increase in mid-level clouds,
which will keep temperatures near Monday`s highs despite the
increased thicknesses. Latest HREF guidance continues to show a few
showers/thunderstorms in south central NC and across our northern
counties late this afternoon into this evening, so introduced some
slight chance PoPs across this area. The front is not expected to
make it south past Columbia before lifting back toward the north
tonight. Any precipitation should be light with low levels remaining
on the drier side.

The ridge axis shifts to the east overnight as the disturbance to
our north moves toward the Great Lakes region. Additional weak short
waves should pass overnight into Wednesday morning, bringing mid-
level cloudiness and mild low temperatures, generally in the low
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will weaken a bit Wednesday with more zonal flow
developing aloft. Moisture increasing in the mid and upper levels
will lead to thicker mid and upper level clouds. This will result in
temperatures a few degrees lower, although still expect highs above
average, generally in the mid-80s. A few sprinkles remain possible
during the day with a shortwave moving through the area but forecast
soundings indicate a fairly substantial dry layer will remain
present in the lower levels. A bit better chance for rain showers
Wednesday night as moisture increases in the lower levels, although
forcing will be relatively weak with surface convergence along a
trough. Any rainfall expected to remain light.

Upper ridging builds back in Thursday with highs approaching 90
again as northwest flow aloft leads to decreasing moisture and as a
result, mostly sunny skies. Near record daily high for Augusta, with
the previous record of 91F set in 1896.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture will increase through the end of the week and into the
weekend with majority of EC ensemble members showing PWATs above an
inch through the period. A shortwave moving through the area Friday
will lead to chances for showers and potentially a few thunderstorms
with ensemble mean CAPE above 300 J/kg. An approaching cold front
this weekend will lead to increasing uncertainty as blended guidance
shows in the large spread in temperatures Saturday through the end
of the period, although there is agreement in much cooler
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. High chances for rain showers
associated with the front, especially Sunday and there remains at
least some potential for thunderstorms, however there remains
uncertainty as to how much an upstream trough deepens over the
Mississippi Valley which would affect the speed of moisture pushing
east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the period.

FEW-SCT cirrus AOA 20k ft MSL, with low and mid clouds developing
later this morning. SFC winds generally variable at less than 5
kts through daybreak, then favoring a WLY/SWLY direction after
about 16/15Z with speeds between 5 and 8 kts. Low clouds
dissipate this evening with winds again decreasing to light and
variable or calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$