National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KRLX 280642
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure southeast of the area leads to summer like
weather Sunday and Monday, with hot afternoons. The next chance
for showers and storms will be Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A summer like pattern is in place with high pressure southeast
of the area surface and aloft, and relatively clean mid-upper
level riding over the area that starts to drift east by Monday
morning. This brings dry weather with just a few afternoon
cumulus and no further convection beyond that.

Light south to southwest low level flow of warm air will help
buoy lowland temperatures into the mid 80s this afternoon, a
good 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows tonight will also be
well above normal, although lower than central guidance in the
valleys on account of clear sky and light wind. Dew points can
get close to 60 degrees F in portions of southeast Ohio later
this afternoon and this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...

Under the strong influence of high pressure and S-SW`ly flow,
we`ll remain unseasonably warm through the short-term, with
lower elevation highs from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees.
Highs on Monday are currently forecast to get close to records
for most of our climate sites - please see the climate section
below for a list of Monday records vs. the current forecast.

Clear skies are expected to start Sunday night, with some fair-
weather cumulus then developing during the day on Monday. We can
expect to see some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, work
into the Mid-Ohio Valley region Monday evening and night as a
weakening front approaches from the west. With greater moisture
availability and modest instability during the day on Tuesday,
more widespread showers and storms are anticipated. However,
with only 25-30kts of 0-6km shear expected over the area, severe
storms are not expected, though some could maintain themselves
for a while with the modest shear and CAPE. The increased precip
and cloud cover, along with the week front, may keep most of the
area in the 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

The weak front looks to either wash out across the area or skirt
by to the north Tuesday night. As it does so, a few showers may
initially linger over WV and VA, especially in and near the
mountains, but they are forecast to dissipate by midnight or
soon after. We`ll be fully under the influence of high pressure
centered over the Southeast US for Wednesday and Thursday, and
temps will respond accordingly. Lowland highs on Wednesday look
to be in the low to mid 80s, and most areas will tack on about
5 more degrees to those highs for Thursday. Even the mountains
will be mostly into the 70s on Thursday, in a sure sign that
summer is on the way.

A few isolated showers are possible over the higher terrain on
Wednesday and Thursday. by later Thursday afternoon, a trough
moving into the Midwest may allow for some shower and
thunderstorm activity to trigger across our western counties.
While the global models do show some instability across the
area, we`re far enough away from any appreciable shear
associated with the trough that severe storms don`t appear to be
a concern at this time. Showers and storms may then persist
across the area through Friday, but again, as best we can tell
as of now for a Day 7 forecast, severe storms don`t appear in
the mix. The highs on Friday may drop a bit compared to Thurs,
but that is likely owing largely to the expectation of some
ongoing precip across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

A summer like pattern is in place with high pressure southeast
of the area surface and aloft. This brings VFR conditions with
just a few afternoon cumulus and no further convection beyond
that.

Surface flow will be light south by night and light southwest
by day. Flow aloft will be light to moderate southwest, perhaps
just enough for low level wind shear over the middle Ohio for a
time this morning, and just enough just off the deck to preclude
fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR or IFR fog cannot be ruled out at
KEKN in the morning, on account of a bit of rain there early
Saturday morning and again Saturday evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 04/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Mondays forecast highs vs. records for the CLI sites

SITE           Forecast      Record (Year Set)    Records Began
Charleston        88F           90F (1996)            1901
Huntington        90F           91F (1914)            1897
Parkersburg       87F           86F (1991)            1926
Clarksburg        86F           93F (1986)            1922
Beckley           84F           85F (2017)            1893
Elkins            85F           87F (1996)            1899

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...TRM

CLIMATE...FK