Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 232354
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
654 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Rain and low clouds are starting to exit the area,
as drier air will move in. KAMA will need to be watched tonight,
as shallow moist airmass from previous rainfall could produce
patch, to perhaps dense fog 2-4 hundred feet thick between 06-12z.
Right now confidence is low, but we do have it in the forecast
about 15 to 20 miles south of the terminal, so we will need to
watch that and may need amendments that could go down to
LIFR/VLIFR. Otherwise light and variable winds out of the
northerly directions through at least 20z then there`s the chance
that they will become more southerly after 20z at KDHT and KGUY.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...

As the system that brought rainfall to much of the Panhandles
continues to exit the region, the forecast will turn towards a
relatively quiet period the next few days. There are a couple
small chances for parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle to see some
rainfall Thursday night through Saturday night as we transition to
northwesterly flow aloft, but these chances are not showing up
consistently between the models. In other words, not confident in
these chances actually coming to fruition. Looking ahead, next
week could become more active/impactful as we begin to head into
our peak severe weather season.

In the wake of the upper level low, we will be in northwesterly flow
aloft. During this time, several small embedded pieces of energy
will be noted. The resolution of these small perturbations are
hard to discern at this time, but there could be a few rounds of
showers/thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday night. At
this time, given the weak dynamics associated with these, not all
that confident in these chances actually being realized. That
being said, did put some small chances across the Oklahoma
Panhandle.

We then transition to a zonal pattern before the next system arrives
over the west coast next week. This will lead to an overall nice
weekend for Panhandle standards. Highs will be in the 80s with
mostly clear skies and winds around 10-20 mph both days.

Next system comes on shore Monday, and as it pushes eastward lift
will increase across the Panhandles. An axis of instability will be
noted across the Panhandles with increasing bulk shear. Dryline
looks to set up across western parts of the Panhandles, and
thunderstorm chances will be possible across the area. GFS is much
stronger with instability but less on the QPF than the
European...and vice versa regarding the European. This is of course
Day7, so a lot can change. It does look like next week could
potentially be an active period. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  71  47  79  50 /   5   5   5   0   5
Beaver OK                  42  75  45  79  50 /  20   5   0   0  10
Boise City OK              39  73  45  74  47 /  20   5   0   0  10
Borger TX                  43  73  51  81  51 /   5   5   5   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              42  73  46  80  49 /   5   5   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  41  71  45  79  49 /   5   5   5   0   5
Clarendon TX               45  70  49  80  52 /  10  10  10   0   5
Dalhart TX                 40  73  44  77  47 /   5   5   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  40  74  47  78  49 /  20   5   0   0  10
Hereford TX                41  70  45  79  49 /   5  10   5   0   5
Lipscomb TX                42  73  48  79  51 /   5   5   5   0  10
Pampa TX                   42  70  48  78  51 /   5   5   5   0   5
Shamrock TX                46  70  49  80  52 /  10  10  10   0   5
Wellington TX              48  70  49  81  52 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/24


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.