Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170245
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Modified the coverage of POPs for this update, basically shrinking
a bit across the west. Overall the forecast remains in good shape
for tonight.


UPDATE
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Cyclonic flow aloft with upper level low pressure centered just
north of North Dakota across far south central Canada. Periods of
light showers continue across my north central and northeast in
proximity to the low. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to move southeast from Montana towards my southwestern
counties. Adjusted POPs to account for the above based on latest
radar and high res guidance.

The upper low will very slowly move east-southeast overnight
towards far northwest Minnesota, with an upper level jet streak
moving along the ND/SD border area. Thus expect light rain to
persist tonight north central/Turtle Mtns, with another area of
showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms across my south
underneath upper jet dynamics.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Aloft, a closed low centered over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba
at the midlevels was accompanied by a baroclinic zone across the
ND/SD border and stretching into northeast Montana. Stratocumulus
and stratus was widespread this afternoon over the northern
portions of the state with light showers over the Turtle Mountain
region and north-central under cyclonic flow. With the closed low
aloft and weak midlevel winds over the International Border,
expecting this cloud cover to persist through the overnight hours
with isolated chances for light rain.

In the southern portion of the state high pressure has slowly
built at the surface with an increase in low level lapse rates
through the diurnal heating cycle. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will be possible this evening, developing along the stationary
front/baroclinic zone over eastern Montana into southwest North
Dakota. Convective activity. will be possible through the
overnight hours in the south-central portions of the state as a
midlevel jet max develops over the baroclinic zone. With midlevel
lapse rates around 6 C/km and surface dew points at best around 50
F, severe weather is not expected.

Monday, cold air advection continues as the low begins to shift
off to the east and North Dakota is under cool northwest flow.
Chances for scattered showers return in the afternoon with the
cold air and cyclonic flow aloft. MOS GFS/NAM guidance keeps
almost the entirety of the forecast area in the mid 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The midlevel pattern of broad low pressure over the Hudson Bay
region with continuous embedded circulations over the northern
plains will continue through most of the week. Highs in the 60s
and 70s with daily chances showers and thunderstorms can be
expected.

Stronger storms may be possible Wednesday as global models
depict troughing and an upper level jet developing over the
northern Rockies and southerly low level flow over the region.
A lot of uncertainty exists with instability however as models
are generally depicting some early convection and atmospheric
overturning.

The cool and wet pattern continues through the end of the week
with general agreement in deeper troughing over the western CONUS
and embedded waves over the northern plains in west/southwest
flow. With the series of digging cold fronts across the plains
through the week, return flow and opportunities for convective
instability is not likely for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Low VFR/MVFR cigs over northeastern North Dakota will develop west
and southward overnight and after sunrise Monday morning impacting
most terminals. Stratus will scatter out some mid morning Monday,
but looks to fill back in as diurnal low VFR/MVFR CU develops at
most terminals during the day Monday. This evening, a few showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in eastern MT to
western ND, mainly near KDIK this evening.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...NH


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