Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 190827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
327 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Today through Saturday.

A band of convection that is exiting into Georgia has left behind
an effective front extending from Lee County AL southwestward to
just east of Troy. Southeast of this boundary, earlier convection
was not widespread, and the airmass is untapped. A secondary
surge of instability is now beginning to to slide east after
initially sliding north into the area, marked by an observation
of 72/70 at Troy at 2 AM and now a drop back to 70/68 degree
dewpoint at 3 AM. Lagrange, Georgia was up to a 70 degree dewpoint
as well at 2 and 3 AM. SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg are right
now across southeast portions of the area but will start to move
out of the area with an hour or so.

As this initial line moves out, we will begin to transition to the
main upper low that will slide through the area. The main
vorticity max with this upper low works into the west between 10am
and 1pm and then works slowly east. Even though the rain will
be light there is a very high chance that areas will measure at
least 0.01 so will go with likely and definite rain chances for
the afternoon. Rainfall could reach up to a quarter of inch the
far northwest along with the persistent rain. Temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 40s in the northwest and then the 50s
across the rest of the north. In fact as the upper low swings in
this afternoon, we may see temperatures drop earlier than a
typical day. Tonight the upper low swings out of the western half
of the area before exiting by Saturday morning.

Conditions rapidly improve on Saturday morning and will see sunny
skies across the area by the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper
50s in the northeast with low to mid 60s elsewhere.


Sunday through Thursday.

Sunday morning will start out on the cool side with readings
generally in the low 40s. Areas in the north may drop into the
upper 30s. Temperatures will warm quite nicely though during the
day Sunday along with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the 70s
to near 80 degrees in the south. Dry weather will continue through
Wednesday morning. Highs will warm a touch each day with Tuesday
in the low to mid 80s.

The warming trend Wednesday across much of the area, but a front
will try to work into the northern portions of the area. There
really is not much of push behind the front so it will likely
stall and wash out across the north by Friday, so the warming
trend will continue through Friday. Will also see the next storm
system work into the area by Friday afternoon. Will need to watch
the trends on this system to see if there will be any potential
for strong to severe storms, so stay tuned.



06Z TAF Discussion.

Generally looking at the thunderstorms to impact TOI/MGM through
12Z, then TOI through 15Z.

Ceilings will generally become MVFR by 12Z and then IFR through
18Z and potentially through 00Z as the upper low moves across the

Winds will remain out of the south/southwest 10-20 kt with gusts
to 30 kt at times ahead and within the convective line. Winds will
become west/northwest 10-20 kt overnight behind the line and into
the morning hours on Friday.




Winds will be generally northwesterly today with the upper low
swinging through. Speeds gradually decrease, with 20ft winds
remaining at 12-15 mph through Friday afternoon. Low clouds are
possible this morning and into the afternoon, along with light
rain showers through the day.

Drier air will spread into the area by the weekend, with RH values
falling into the 30 percent range Saturday and Sunday afternoons.


Gadsden     61  41  61  40  76 /  80  70  30   0   0
Anniston    62  41  62  41  76 /  70  70  20   0   0
Birmingham  57  43  65  44  77 /  80  70  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  54  44  67  43  78 /  80  70   0   0   0
Calera      57  43  64  42  76 /  80  70  10   0   0
Auburn      67  43  61  43  73 /  70  50  10   0   0
Montgomery  63  45  67  43  77 /  60  50   0   0   0
Troy        68  45  65  43  76 /  60  40   0   0   0




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