Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 252345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
645 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

For 00Z Aviation.



Do not see any real changes that are necessary this afternoon. the
latest RUC analysis has drier air over Central Alabama and slow
moving convection in Louisiana. Some sea breeze feature is also
possible but how much of this activity makes it into Alabama is
not clear. Kept the highest pops south and southwest the remainder
of the afternoon into the evening. Thereafter, a broad ridge
generally dictates the weather of the southern Conus. There will
be a weakness in the ridge over Central Alabama through Friday and
then this feature retrogrades toward Texas. Rain chances should be
close to seasonal with scattered convection possible each day and
diminishing in the evenings. High temps stay at or just above
normals while lows are very close to normal.


Previous short-term discussion:
Monitoring convective trends early this afternoon over Louisiana
with a shield of associated cumulus beginning to overspread
southern Mississippi. Earlier expectations remain the same with
deep-layer westerlies keeping favorable moisture content along the
coast. Therefore, sea-breeze activity will increase along the
coastline in the following hours with additional outflow, from
thunderstorms over Louisiana, likely aiding in lift from
southeastern Mississippi into our far southwestern counties late
this afternoon. Added scattered rain chances in the far
southwestern corner this evening, but storms that are able to
maintain into the area will quickly lose intensity by 06Z as
daytime heating decreases after sunset.


Wednesday through Monday.

Transitioning to a relatively benign flow pattern for the Southeast
by Wednesday will leave most rain chances (and any other problem
areas in the weather) to low-level and surface-based mesoscale
features into the long-term. Jet stream winds will generally reside
across the northern tier of the CONUS with a large scale trough &
upper-level low across the Pacific Northwest. From the Rockies and
eastward will lie a broad region of ridging, with the Gulf Coast
states humid/warm. Thus, most rain chances outside of Wednesday have
been left rather broad & diurnally driven as expected for this time
of year. There are some indications that some thunderstorm activity
will approach from the northwest on Wednesday, likely in response to
a subtle upper-level shortwave & potential remnant convective
systems moving southeastward from the mid-Mississippi River

Temperatures across Central Alabama should range within a few
degrees of `normal` values for this time of year with upper 80s to
mid 90s for highs and upper 60s to mid 70s for lows, generally as
the surface layer cools to near dewpoint temperatures overnight. By
late week, the aforementioned shortwave and other mesoscale
mid/upper-level eddies (imagine a vorticity lava lamp) will
gradually rotate westward toward the Southern Plains with
amplification of the longwave ridge as it moves into the eastern
CONUS. It doesn`t appear to be until next week that any wholesale
synoptic pattern changes occur, though confidence on this is
still quite low. For now, daily chances for showers &
thunderstorms & a typical summer pattern will be the main theme
for the next several days. Though a strong storm can`t be ruled
out at some point this week, no severe weather is expected at this



00Z TAF Discussion.

Area of thunderstorms pushes eastward over the southern half of
Mississippi at this time with a shield of cirrus over Central
Alabama. The convection has decreased significantly over the past
hour. Current thinking is that chances are too low to include
mention in any terminals for the short term as it should continue
to deteriorate. Another wave of convection is expected from the
west in the morning. Have timed a mention for all except MGM/TOI
for during the daytime. MGM/TOI have lower chances as they will be
more removed from the best energy. Otherwise, VFR TAFs are




Afternoon high temperatures will be at or slightly above normal
through the week. Minimum relative humidity values remain in the
50s through Wednesday and then drop slightly the remainder of the
week into the upper 30s. Rain chances appear on most days and in
most areas but should stay scattered or less.



Gadsden     67  90  66  91  66 /  10  30  10  20  10
Anniston    68  91  67  92  68 /  10  30  10  20  10
Birmingham  72  92  70  93  71 /  10  30  10  30  10
Tuscaloosa  72  92  71  93  71 /  20  40  20  30  10
Calera      70  90  68  92  69 /  20  30  10  30  10
Auburn      71  90  70  91  71 /  10  20  10  20  20
Montgomery  71  93  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
Troy        71  92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  20  20





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