Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 200248

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
848 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Shower activity across our west/north has been spotty and weak,
and to this point we have not seen any lightning. Stronger
convection has been west and north of our cwa in a lower height
regime with greater jet forcing. An isolated lightning strike is
still possible across our north for the next few hours. Otherwise,
have reduced pops for our southern cwa for the remainder of the
night. For Billings, we could see an isolated shower late tonight
and early tomorrow, but much better chance of precip will begin
tomorrow afternoon.

Surface analysis shows cold front in southern Alberta just north
of the MT border. Pressure rises on the cold side of the front are
beginning to increase and the front will begin to push southward
more aggressively soon. The fropa should reach our north late
tonight and south early tomorrow, and this will need to be
watched. A slower frontal timing allows for an opportunity for
thunderstorms across our south tomorrow. In the meantime, it will
be a mild night as the cold advection doesn`t arrive til early

In addition to pop adjustments tonight and Saturday morning, have
raised winds at Judith Gap as north winds will increase once the
Canadian front arrives. Overall forecast is in good shape with a
wet weekend coming for most of the area. JKL


.SHORT TERM...valid for Sat and Sun...

Warmest afternoon of the spring season as the Billings airport
has hit 81 degrees so far with the office at 82 degrees. This will
be short-lived as everything goes downhill for the weekend.
Southwest winds have mainly been in the 15 to 25 mph range with
some gusts around 30 mph today providing the strong downslope
warming flow. We will continue the rangeland fire outlook through
9 pm given current winds and humidities around 20 percent with dry
grasses remaining across many areas. Models continue to keep the
shower and thunderstorm chances confined mainly across north
central into northeast Montana this afternoon and evening.
However, we will continue a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm across our far western areas from western Park County
north to the far western portions of Wheatland County into early
this evening.

The downslope flow will be enhanced by a cold front that will
move across the forecast area late tonight into Saturday morning.
This has allowed for the pre- frontal warming today. Winds will
switch to the north then northeast by early afternoon Saturday
ushering in temperatures about 20 degrees cooler than today with
another 10 to 15 degree drop for Sunday.

A very cool and moist upslope flow will prevail Saturday and
Sunday with a widespread rain event anticipated. The peak period
for rain will be Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Many areas
will see rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.00" with some slightly higher
amounts along and near the Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. Around a
foot of snow is possible through the weekend for the
Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains. Overall, the system does not have a
lot of cold air but there still remains the possibility of a few
inches for the foothills locations Saturday night into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Showers will gradually decrease from north to south on Monday as
the system responsible for the weekend precipitation is progged to
move out of the region. A gradual warming trend is then forecast
through at least the middle of the week as heights build, but a
couple weak disturbances moving through the region could bring
shower chances to the area as well. Deeper troughing is then
progged to develop over the West the second half of the week with
additional disturbances possible. Models remain out of phase for
this part of the extended. Highs are forecast to range from the
50s on Monday, warming into mainly the 60s and 70s through the
rest of the long term. Overnight lows are forecast to range from
the 30s and 40s most nights/mornings. STP



VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. Isolated
showers are possible mainly north of KLVM-KBIL and near KMLS-KBHK
tonight. Westerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 kts generally west of
KBIL will gradually decrease into the evening. A cold front will
move into the area late tonight causing winds to turn
north/northeasterly and precipitation to increase over the area on
Saturday. STP/RMS



    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
BIL 051/064 042/052 039/059 040/072 047/075 047/069 042/062
    27/R    97/R    32/W    10/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
LVM 045/060 037/046 033/055 035/066 041/067 041/063 038/058
    28/T    98/O    32/W    00/U    11/B    23/T    44/W
HDN 047/067 041/053 039/060 038/071 046/075 046/068 042/063
    15/R    97/R    22/W    10/U    11/B    22/T    43/W
MLS 049/067 043/059 039/062 041/072 049/074 047/069 043/063
    24/R    73/R    11/B    00/U    01/B    22/W    32/W
4BQ 046/072 043/055 038/059 039/070 046/074 046/069 043/063
    03/T    86/R    12/W    10/U    11/B    12/W    22/W
BHK 047/069 041/058 036/059 039/068 046/073 046/067 041/060
    22/R    74/R    11/B    00/U    10/B    11/B    23/W
SHR 043/070 039/049 035/055 035/068 041/071 043/067 040/062
    05/T    88/R    43/W    11/U    11/B    23/T    33/W




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