Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 160851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
251 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu...

Expect warm and dry conditions to prevail through the bulk of short
term forecast period. An unsettled weather pattern returns late
Thursday, bringing a return cooler and wetter conditions to end
the short term period, and continue into the extended period.

A period of windy conditions this morning will be the biggest
weather concern through today and much of Thursday. Lee- side
troffing and a weak pressure gradient remains over the
Beartooth/Absaroka mountains this morning, keeping gap winds
active around the Livingston-Big Timber areas. Thus far, winds
have behaved themselves, and should stay below 50 mph. Higher
winds should taper off by late this morning.

Temps will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area today
and Thursday. Relative humidities will also drop into the 20s and
low 30s each day.

Southwest flow aloft takes over across the region by Thursday
afternoon as an upper trof moves over the area. This will
introduce the period of unsettled and cooler weather, with
showers into the western mountains Thursday evening, and spreading
across the region overnight.


.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Cooler and unsettled weather pattern will prevail through the
extended forecast period, under the influence of a broad upper
level trof. A series of shortwave trofs and ridges will keep
periods of showers crossing the region, nad keep temps cooler,
with reinforcing short of cool air.

Showers associated with FROPA Friday and Saturday will be most
significant in high terrain through Friday and Saturday, but some
isolated to scattered light showers are expected into the plains,
but with relatively light accumulations expected. Strong and gusty
winds will accompany this front, with gusts approaching 50mph
near Livingston, and Bozeman Pass.

The second wave, passing through on Sunday, should bring more
appreciable precip amounts across the region. This should be
mainly snow in the mountains, and a mix of rain and snow in plains
to start the morning, before transitioning to rain through the
day Sunday. Precip is expected to turn back to snow Sunday night
will bring precipitation to the lower elevations. Looks to be
light mix of rain/snow in the morning that will transition to rain
as temperatures warm up.

Broad upper ridging will develop across the west early next week,
keeping unsettled northwest flow aloft in place across the region
into Wednesday, before the ridge stars shifting eastward late
Wednesday through Thursday. this should keep giving us some
potential for showers and keep temps on the cooler side, but
details on timing and strength of individual pieces of energy are
quite uncertain for the middle of next week.

Temperatures will reach around 60 on Friday, with cooling trend
through the weekend, with upper 40s to low 50s by Sunday. Temps
will moderate a bit to end the period, but we should still only
see highs in the 50s and 60s through the beginning of next week.



Disturbance tracking to the north of the area will bring some mid
to high level clouds today. Southwest winds along favored
locations in the foothills early this morning will taper off
after daybreak. Expect VFR today and overnight. borsum


    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
BIL 072 045/069 043/060 036/057 037/051 034/054 039/060
    0/U 00/E    52/R    23/R    74/O    43/O    43/O
LVM 070 043/067 038/052 034/050 034/046 031/049 038/055
    0/U 02/R    74/O    27/O    85/O    45/O    53/R
HDN 072 041/071 041/060 034/059 036/051 032/053 035/060
    0/U 00/B    42/R    22/R    55/O    43/O    43/O
MLS 068 040/069 043/059 036/057 037/050 032/051 034/056
    0/B 00/B    32/R    11/B    44/O    33/O    32/O
4BQ 069 040/071 040/058 033/057 034/049 030/049 032/057
    0/U 00/B    33/R    21/B    45/O    42/O    32/O
BHK 065 039/068 041/056 034/055 034/048 030/047 031/053
    0/B 00/U    13/R    00/U    35/O    33/O    22/R
SHR 071 039/072 038/057 031/057 032/047 028/050 031/059
    0/U 00/E    43/O    21/B    54/O    43/O    43/O




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